2012 Football Board – Week 7 Recap 2


First off, sorry about the lack of an update last week. I had gone up to Seattle to catch the Seahawks/Patriots game and by the time I got home I was behind on a lot of stuff that doing a recap was out of the question. I can see this same scenario happening around Thanksgiving.

And secondly, I did not intend for there to be a lot of drama surrounding the Mark Ingram/Pierre Thomas wager. I did enjoy the drama since it’s been a while since the show had any. I’ve been asking for confirmation on the wager each week because I felt it was my responsibility to make sure that there weren’t any shenanigans. If the bet was not mentioned on the podcast then I wanted to confirm it over Twitter. I commend Matthew for admitting he was wrong and it takes a man to recognize and own up to his mistakes.

Closed Bets

  1. Who has more fantasy points in week 7: P. Thomas or M. Ingram?
    Pierre Thomas wins the last bet 9-2. Ingram has to be one of the biggest busts this year. I drafted him in a few leagues and was happy to trade him away early in the season.
    Winner: P. Thomas (Nate)
  2. Who has more fantasy points each week: P. Thomas or M. Ingram?
    Matthew ended the assault and took a final loss for calling off the bet. It was a wise decision since Thomas probably would’ve skunked Ingram.
    Winner: P. Thomas (Nate)
  3. Who has more fantasy points in week 7: A. Dalton or B. Roethlisberger?
    Finally some good news for Matthew! Big Ben wasn’t all that impressive but he still won the wager 13-6.
    Fan Vote: B. Roethlisberger (55%)
    Winner: B. Roethlisberger (Matthew)

Open Bets

  1. Who has more fantasy points: M. Turner or A. Peterson?
    Turner was on bye and Peterson had a great week as he finally found the end zone. Peterson now leads 92-64 and should be able to maintain this lead.
    Projected winner: A. Peterson (Matthew)
  2. Over/Under 969 receiving yards for T. Smith?
    Smith has fallen off the past couple of weeks. He currently has 435 yards and that’s puts him on pace for 994 yards. I still believe that he’ll get back in the groove and up his pace but he cannot afford to have many more of these 40 yard games.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  3. Who has more fantasy points: R. Wayne or P. Garcon?
    Wayne leads 74-26. Garcon is still hampered by his foot injury and has probably lost this bet as a result of it.
    Projected winner: R. Wayne (Nate)
  4. Who has more fantasy points: F. Gore or S. Jackson?
    Gore leads 88-48. Jackson continues to be very mediocre while Gore seems to always have a solid week.
    Projected winner: F. Gore (Nate)
  5. Over/Under 44.5 targets for D. Branch?
    Branch is up to a whopping 11 targets in 6 games. Unless there’s some drastic change in the Patriots game plan, Branch will fall well short for 45 targets.
    Projected winner: Under (Matthew)
  6. Will M. Turner be a top 10 RB?
    Turner is currently the #14 RB. He’s only 6 points behind the #10 RB (Reggie Bush) so he’s got a chance to reach the top 10. However, Forte, Sproles and McFadden looming behind him and Chris Johnson, McCoy and McGahee ahead of him it’ll be tough to crack the top 10.
    Projected winner: No (Matthew)
  7. Over/Under 3,500 passing yards for C. Palmer?
    Palmer is up to 1,732 yards and is on pace for 4,619 yards. He continues to throw for around 300 yards each week and it’s looking pretty good for him to go over 3,500 yards.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  8. Over/Under 23.5 passing TDs for C. Palmer?
    Palmer has only 7 TDs to go with all those yards. That puts him on pace for 19 TDs. Out of the 6 games he’s played, he has only one multi-TD game.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  9. Over/Under 7.5 wins for the NY Jets?
    The Jets have 3 wins and are hanging in there despite losing Revis and Holmes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win 9 games but it’ll be mighty difficult.
    Projected winner: Under (Matthew)
  10. Who averages more fantasy points per start: R. Wilson or A. Luck?
    Luck leads 16.7 ppg to 9.9 ppg. The Seahawks just don’t throw the ball all that much for Wilson to be a major fantasy player. Luck should continue to dominate the bet.
    Projected winner: A. Luck (Matthew)
  11. Who has more fantasy points: M. Wallace or A. Brown?
    Wallace leads 61-46. Wallace continues to find the end zone and that’s really the difference between the two guys at this point. I still like Brown more but it may change in a few weeks if he continues to get shutout of the end zone.
    Projected winner: A. Brown (Matthew)
  12. Who has more fantasy points: M. Schaub or J. Cutler?
    Schaub leads 95-76. Have I mentioned that I don’t trust Cutler as a fantasy QB? Schaub is the safer bet.
    Projected winner: M. Schaub (Nate)
  13. Is D. McFadden a top 3 RB (using ppg)?
    McFadden is sitting at #20, averaging 9.0 ppg. It’s going to take a bunch of 150 yard, 2 TD weeks for him to get up in to the top 3. The current top 3 are Foster (18.1), and Rice (14.3), Charles (13.5).
    Projected winner: No (Nate)
  14. Who will have more carries: M. Jones-Drew or M. Lynch?
    Lynch leads 147-86 and should win this wager given MJD’s injury.
    Projected winner: Lynch (Matthew)
  15. Over/Under 44.5 Targets for any Patriots WR (excludes Welker & Lloyd)?
    Julian Edelman is up to 17 targets and still has a decent chance at this bet. I think he’ll go over 45 targets but not by much.
    Projected winner: Over (Nate)
  16. Who has more fantasy points: M. Turner or C. Johnson?
    Take that fork out, Johnson made this wager since the last recap. Turner still leads but it’s only 67-65 now. Johnson is still dancing around too much to be a consistent back but his upside is much better than Turner’s. I don’t see Turner running for 150+ yards, where I can see that with Johnson.
    Projected winner: C. Johnson (Matthew)
  17. Who has more fantasy points from week 2 on: M. Schaub or J. Flacco?
    Schaub leads 81-80. Schaub is going to be the most consistent QB but I still have to side with Flacco’s potential for huge games.
    Projected winner: J. Flacco (Matthew)
  18. Who has more fantasy points from week 2 on: B. Roethlisberger or J. Flacco?
    Roethlisberger leads 93-80. Roethlisberger doesn’t concern me as a fantasy QB, whereas Flacco does with his inconsistency.
    Projected winner: B. Roethlisberger (Nate)
  19. Is M. Turner a top 15 RB from week 4 on?
    Here’s the latest standings.

    # Running Back Points
    1 Arian Foster, Hou RB 72
    2 Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RB 61
    3 Chris Johnson, Ten RB 57
    4 Shonn Greene, NYJ RB 54
    4 Adrian Peterson, Min RB 54
    6 Frank Gore, SF RB 52
    7 Alfred Morris, Wsh RB 51
    8 Stevan Ridley, NE RB 50
    9 Marshawn Lynch, Sea RB 44
    10 Jamaal Charles, KC RB 38
    10 Trent Richardson, Cle RB 38
    12 Michael Turner, Atl RB 37
    13 Willis McGahee, Den RB 36
    13 LeSean McCoy, Phi RB 36
    13 Fred Jackson, Buf RB 36

    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)

  20. Who averages more fantasy points per game from week 6 on: A. Dalton or A. Luck?
    After two games, Dalton leads 12.5 ppg to 11.5 ppg. Luck has not had the best starts the last two weeks (last week was saved by two rushing TDs) so that’s a bit of a concern. I think it’ll be a close bet but Dalton has been in the league a year longer and should be a little more consistent.
    Projected winner: A. Dalton (Nate)

Closing Thoughts

Nate leads the board 12-3 and it’s starting to feel like he’s about to run away with another board. Tallying up the projections reaffirms this feeling as I’m projecting Nate to win 21-14. The weekly bet strategy has not paid off for Matthew so far but I still think it’s a good game plan to get back in to this board. Matthew should probably try different wagers instead of head-to-head points…maybe something nonsensical like longest punt, or who gets voted off The Voice next. Nonsense is one of Matthew’s strengths; he just needs to utilize it on the board.

  • bawsl

    Pretty sure this is a typo: “Palmer is up to 1,732 yards and is on pace for 4,619 yards. He continues to throw for around 300 yards each week and it’s looking pretty good for him to go over 3,500 yards.” 4600 yards!

    • That’s not a typo. Palmer has been throwing the ball a ton. It’s amazing what the game has turned in to.