2012 Football Board – Week 4 Recap


Now that the real referees are back, I can finally keep up a good pace for this recap. No more telling stories, or dawdling along…What’s that Mr. Hochuli? I need to pick this up? Yessir! On to the recap!

Closed Bets

  1. Who has more fantasy points in week 4: P. Thomas or M. Ingram?
    This is going to be an ugly wager, but at least it should be “competitive” each week. Week 4 was a push as both guys managed 1 fantasy point each.
    Winner: Push

Open Bets

  1. Who has more fantasy points: M. Turner or A. Peterson?
    And we have ourselves a bet! Turner had a great week 4 with 22 points and that brings him to within one point of Peterson. Peterson leads 49-50. I still don’t believe in Turner despite the last two weeks.
    Projected winner: A. Peterson (Matthew)
  2. Over/Under 969 receiving yards for T. Smith?
    Smith had another solid week and this what I expect him to do in most weeks. He’s now up to 332 yards and is on pace for 1,328.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  3. Who has more fantasy points: R. Wayne or P. Garcon?
    Wayne was on bye and Garcon made up some ground by picking up 8 fantasy points…6 of them on a fumble recovery for a TD. He got lucky and will be a big question mark until he can show he’s over his foot injury. If Josh Morgan can pick up 60 yards, then I still believe that Garcon can win this bet.
    Projected winner: Garcon (Matthew)
  4. Who has more fantasy points: F. Gore or S. Jackson?
    Gore had another solid week, while Jackson disappointed, again. Gore now leads 49-21. I’m not sure what’s going on with Jackson but I simply do not trust him.
    Projected winner: F. Gore (Nate)
  5. Over/Under 44.5 targets for D. Branch?
    Branch picked up 0 targets in week 4. It’s not what you want to see if you’re Nate Ravitz. Chalk it up to the Belichick gameplan or whatever excuse you want to use. I think Branch will still pick up a few targets each week but they definitely won’t be there on a consistent basis.
    Projected winner: Under (Matthew)
  6. Will M. Turner be a top 10 RB?
    His 22 point effort bumped him up to #13 and he’s only 3 points away from the #10 spot. I need a see him string together a few more weeks of 12+ fantasy points before I’m back on the wagon.
    Projected winner: No (Matthew)
  7. Over/Under 3,500 passing yards for C. Palmer?
    Palmer only picked up 202 yards in week 4 and is on pace for 3,707 yards. Glancing at his schedule for the rest of the year, I don’t see a lot of defenses that will really derail him from successfully completing this 3,500 yard quest.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  8. Over/Under 23.5 passing TDs for C. Palmer?
    He’s got 5 TD passes and is on pace for 20 TDs. I’m still not very confident about the passing TDs since he’s only had one multi-TD week in his first 4 games.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  9. Over/Under 7.5 wins for the NY Jets?
    The Jets fall to 2-2 after getting trounced by Stephania’s horrible 49ers. They also lost Santonio Holmes for the season and Tebow will probably be their QB pretty soon. The Jets are done for the year and will probably struggle to win many more games from here on out.
    Projected winner: Under (Matthew)
  10. Who averages more fantasy points per start: R. Wilson or A. Luck?
    Wilson probably wishes he was on BYE last week. Wilson only picked up one fantasy point and lowered his average to 8.75 points per start. Luck was on BYE and maintains his 16.3 points per start. Luck should be able to easily win this wager.
    Projected winner: A. Luck (Matthew)
  11. Who has more fantasy points: M. Wallace or A. Brown?
    Both were on BYE and Wallace still leads 40-26. See last week’s notes for further commentary.
    Projected winner: A. Brown (Matthew)
  12. Who has more fantasy points: M. Schaub or J. Cutler?
    Cutler had the better week and cut in to Schaub’s lead, which is now only 62-44. I still find it hard to believe in Cutler, even though he passed on his powers to Tony Romo on Monday.
    Projected winner: M. Schaub (Nate)
  13. Is D. McFadden a top 3 RB (using ppg)?
    Hopefully this isn’t a trend but McFadden followed up his good week 3 effort with only 3 fantasy points. He lowered his average to 8.5 points per game and this is good for #22. He may end up a top 10 back but top 3 is definitely stretching it at this point.
    Projected winner: No (Nate)
  14. Who will have more carries: M. Jones-Drew or M. Lynch?
    MJD is proving that his carry total will fluctuate each week by Lynch is good for at least 20 carries. Lynch now leads 92-72.
    Projected winner: Lynch (Matthew)
  15. Over/Under 44.5 Targets for any Patriots WR (excludes Welker & Lloyd)?
    The leader, Edelman, did not pick up any receptions this week but he’s still at 15 targets with 12 more games to play. I’ll blame it on Belichick weirdness and I still think that Edelman will be a big enough part of the offense to reach the 45 target mark.
    Projected winner: Over (Nate)
  16. Who has more fantasy points: M. Turner or C. Johnson?
    Turner now leads 49-23 after Johnson finally decides to show up. I’ll need to see Johnson have another non-30 yard week if I want to trust him again. Turner will find the end zone enough to maintain a comfortable lead in this bet.
    Projected winner: M. Turner (Nate)
  17. Who has more fantasy points: P. Thomas or M. Ingram?
    And they keep inching towards the finish line or is the irrelevancy line? Thomas leads 23-14 and the 9 point lead should be difficult to overcome. Lock it up!
    Projected winner: P. Thomas (Nate)
  18. Who has more fantasy points from week 2 on: M. Schaub or J. Flacco?
    Flacco put together another good week and now leads 56-48. The Texans are content with the running the ball and that’ll hamper Schaub’s value. Call me Wacko for Flacco but I think he’ll run away with the bet.
    Projected winner: J. Flacco (Matthew)
  19. Who has more fantasy points from week 2 on: B. Roethlisberger or J. Flacco?
    Roethlisberger was on BYE and Flacco put together a good week 4 to take the lead in this bet, 56-50. Until the Steelers have a running game, I think Big Ben will put up better numbers than Flacco.
    Projected winner: B. Roethlisberger (Nate)
  20. Who has more fantasy points each week: P. Thomas or M. Ingram?
    Thomas is the better back and ought to win the majority of weeks.
    Projected winner: P. Thomas (Nate)
  21. Is M. Turner a top 15 RB from week 4 on?
    After one week, he’s the top back in all of fantasy! He’s still a top 15 talent in my books, there’s still enough gas in his tank but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be horrible in weeks 15-17.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)

Closing Thoughts

Back to the last bet, I hate Nate and Matthew for making this bet. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a great bet that’s useful for fantasy players in assessing Turner’s value but it’s going to be a bear to maintain. It’s going to force me to use Excel to accurately track this bet throughout the season. #wah

After 4 weeks, Nate has a comfortable lead, 8-2, after taking advantage of the weekly bets. Tallying up the projections, and leaving out the weekly Thomas-Ingram bets, I have Nate winning 17-13. The Thomas-Ingram bet will still play a huge role in who wins this board. I’m interested to see how long that one stays on the board before someone gives up on it or realizes that it’s going to kill their shot win the board.