2012 Football Board – Week 1 Recap 1

Week one of the 2012-13 NFL season is in the books. Hopefully everyone had a good first week of fantasy football. First I’ll attend to a little house cleaning before breaking down the wagers.

Here’s the weekly schedule I will try to stick to during the NFL season:

  • Sunday – Live discussion in the forums. Just a warning, I’ll be watching the Redskins most of the time with the Red Zone Channel playing on the iPad…so there may be some excessive RG3 love going on.
  • Monday – Quick board update. I’ll update the bets that I can. There will be some that I’ll wait for Tuesday to update once stats are final.
  • Tuesday – Full board update and weekly recap.
  • Rest of the week – Catch my breath. There may be some other things that are posted throughout the week, like sneaky pickups from my wife, a viewing guide to the wagers, or some nonsense if I get bored.

Closed Bets

  1. Will MJD be on the field for JAX in week 1?
    It was a bad bet at the time it was made but as the season drew near it was fairly obvious that MJD would play.
    Fan Vote: Yes (53%)
    Winner: Yes (Nate)
  2. Who has more fantasy points in week 1: P. Thomas or M. Ingram?
    It’s tough to lose a bet when your opponent only scores 1 point. There really weren’t any winners with this bet.
    Fan Vote: P. Thomas (52%)
    Winner: P. Thomas (Nate)
  3. Will R. Williams finish 12+ spots below B. Wells in week 1?
    Another snoozer of a bet. That fact that Williams scored -1 points is what really lost it for Matthew. Both were equally horrible but that’s how the chips fell.
    Fan Vote: No (66%)
    Winner: Yes (Nate)
  4. Who has more fantasy points in week 1: F. Gore or D. Martin?
    Finally, a bet that was interesting. Gore surprised me by going for 17 points but it was also nice to see Martin put together a nice game.
    Fan Vote: F. Gore (59%)
    Winner: F. Gore (Nate)
  5. Is M. Wallace a top 15 WR in week 1?
    Wallace finished 9 points and that was good enough for #30. It was kind of a weird week with Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerlin, Cecil Shorts, James Jones, Kevin Ogletree and Andre Roberts all having better weeks than Wallace (and even Megatron!).
    Fan Vote: No (70%)
    Winner: No (Matthew)
  6. Is R. Brown a top 35 RB in week 1?
    It was close as Brown finished at #40 and proved Nate’s point that he’s still horrible. At least it resulted in a good rant from Matthew about Norv Turner.
    Fan Vote: Yes (60%)
    Winner: No (Nate)

Open Bets

  1. Who has more fantasy points: M. Turner or A. Peterson?
    Can’t say much about Adrian Peterson other than “wow”. His workload may not be a big at Turner’s for a while but he’s still got a nose for the end zone. Atlanta has some excellent WR weapons and should take a lot of TD opportunities away from Turner.
    Projected winner: A. Peterson (Matthew)
  2. Over/Under 969 receiving yards for T. Smith?
    He picked up 57 yards in week one, with 52 of them on one play. He’s on pace for 912 yards. If he really just needs to have 60-65 yards a week to reach this goal, it really seems obtainable. Smith should easily get the 969 yards and will probably do so by week 13.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  3. Who has more fantasy points: R. Wayne or P. Garcon?
    Garcon takes the early lead, 16-13, but both looked great on Sunday. Garcon was on his way to a huge game until he got injured. Barring injury this will be a close battle all the way to the end. Garcon looks like he’ll be good to go for week 2 but if this injury lingers it may cost him the bet. Until then, the RG3-Garcon combo looks fantastic.
    Projected winner: Garcon (Matthew)
  4. Who has more fantasy points: F. Gore or S. Jackson?
    Gore leads 17-8. Despite the early lead, I still have to side with Jackson on this since he is the only weapon in St. Louis. He’ll have more opportunities to rack up receptions and rushing yards. I can easily see Gore have some weeks where he gets 15 carries for 60-70 yards, whereas Jackson could do the same but he’ll have tacked on 4-5 receptions and 30 yards receiving.
    Projected winner: S. Jackson (Matthew)
  5. Over/Under 44.5 targets for D. Branch?
    He still has signed on with anyone and no news of anyone interested.
    Projected winner: Under (Matthew)
  6. Will M. Turner be a top 10 RB?
    Turner only has 3 fantasy points in week one and that was only good enough for #35. He’ll have better weeks but the passing attack seems to be the focus in Atlanta now. I think he’ll be hard pressed to be a top 10 back.
    Projected winner: No (Matthew)
  7. Over/Under 3,500 passing yards for C. Palmer?
    He had 297 yards and is on pace for 4,752 yards. He’s not going to keep up that pace but it’s looking like it’ll be doable. Even without Moore and Ford he was able to rack up the yardage. Oakland has a good set of WRs to spread the yardage around…and having your RB pick up 86 yards on 13 receptions definitely helps.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  8. Over/Under 23.5 passing TDs for C. Palmer?
    He only picked up one TD pass and is on pace for 16. Only 10 QBs had more than 23.5 TDs last year. The yardage will be there for Palmer but I’m not sold on the TDs.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  9. Over/Under 7.5 wins for the NY Jets?
    The J-E-T-S picked up a win and are on pace to tie the ’72 Dolphins with 16 wins. Were the Jets playing possum in the pre-season? Maybe Tebow lit a fire under Sanchez and he’s going to be good QB this year. The Jets have a fairly tough schedule to start the season but I think they’ll manage to get 8 or 9 wins this year.
    Projected winner: Over (Nate)
  10. Who averages more fantasy points per start: R. Wilson or A. Luck?
    Both guys finished with 8 fantasy points. Luck appeared to have the better day but the 3 INTs killed his debut. Wilson only managed 153 yards on 34 attempts. Was Wilson taking advantage of pre-season defenses? I’m sold on Luck but it’ll take another week or two before I’ll know what Wilson can do in the regular season.
    Projected winner: A. Luck (Matthew)
  11. Who has more fantasy points: M. Wallace or A. Brown?
    Wallace leads 9-7, thanks in part to a TD reception. Brown, however, had 8 targets to Wallace’s 6 (Emmanuel Sanders also had 8). Like the Garcon/Wayne bet, this one will go down to the end of the season. I still have a feeling that Big Ben targets Brown more and that has me leaning in his favor.
    Projected winner: A. Brown (Matthew)
  12. Who has more fantasy points: M. Schaub or J. Cutler?
    Cutler leads 19-14 and benefited from having Brandon Marshall back and a new offensive coordinator. Schaub still had a solid game but Houston is still a rushing team. I hate to say it but I’d rather have Cutler.
    Projected winner: J. Cutler (Matthew)
  13. Is D. McFadden a top 3 RB (using ppg)?
    McFadden pick up 11 fantasy points in week 1 and that was good for #15. The 13 receptions were a great sign for how big a part of the offense he will be. As long as he can stay healthy, he’ll have a good shot at being a top 3 guy. I’m not so sure that he’ll be better than either McCoy, Foster or Rice though.
    Projected winner: No (Nate)
  14. Who will have more carries: M. Jones-Drew or M. Lynch?
    Lynch leads 21-19 carries. I can see Lynch missing a week to an injury, while MJD just keeps trucking along.
    Projected winner: MJD (Nate)
  15. Over/Under 44.5 Targets for any Patriots WR (excludes Welker & Lloyd)?
    Julian Edelman is the current leader with 2 targets. There’s not a lot of WRs in New England right now but there’s also a lot of TEs and RBs that are going to get targets. The #3 WR is going to have to fight Welker, Lloyd, Hernandez, Gronk and Ridley for targets.
    Projected winner: Under (Matthew)
  16. Who has more fantasy points: M. Turner or C. Johnson?
    This looks like one of those bets that should be a battle of the heavyweights, with them slugging it over the course of the season. With that said, Johnson takes the early lead, 4-3. Johnson is looking like a shell of his former self and Turner is not the focal point in Atlanta any more. I’m kind of done with both guys but I have more confidence in Turner at this point. (queue a 200 yard, 2 TD for Johnson next week).
    Projected winner: M. Turner (Nate)
  17. Who has more fantasy points: P. Thomas or M. Ingram?
    Someone tell Brees to utilize his RBs a little more so this will be interesting. Thomas leads 2-1. I still believe that Thomas is the Saints main RB and will continue to do so until Ingram proves this wrong.
    Projected winner: P. Thomas (Nate)
  18. Who has more fantasy points from week 2 on: M. Schaub or J. Flacco?
    I’ll need to see another week of the “elite” Flacco before I fully buy in to it. He certainly has the skill to win this wager but how many years have we been expecting this breakout? This will be a close bet but I have a little more faith in Schaub with Johnson, Daniels, Foster and Tate helping him to solid numbers each week.
    Projected winner: M. Schaub (Nate)
  19. Who has more fantasy points from week 2 on: B. Roethlisberger or J. Flacco?
    Until the Steelers get a solid ground game going, I’m going to assume that they’ll be airing it out each week.
    Projected winner: B. Roethlisberger (Nate)

Closing Thoughts

It certainly didn’t take long for the guys to fill up the board with a lot of bets. I’m liking these weekly bets since they add some intrigue to the board and it’s a nice tie in for fantasy players trying to decide on players to start/sit.

Nate takes the early lead on the board, picking up 5 wins to Matthew’s 1 in the first week. Tallying all the projections, I have Nate eeking out a win 13-12. Of course, the season is very young so all of this could easily go who crazy crazy and have Matthew sweep everything.