2012 Baseball Board – Mid-season recap


Will Nate’s loss to Jonah Keri carry over in to his bets with Matthew?

Let me take this opportunity to thank Matthew and Nate for making wagers that are much easier to track. It was certainly a chore last year to keep track of the 5×5 bets and having to break out the abacus to calculate WHIP and ERA. Player Rater and single category bets are a joy to track.

The pace of the wagers has tailed off a bit in the last month but that’s probably due to both Nate and Matthew rarely being on the same podcast. I’m hoping there will be a flurry of post-all star break wagers and maybe a nonsense bet (or two). There’s got to be something else happening this summer that they could wager on…

Open Wagers:

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Y. Gallardo or I. Kennedy?
    Gallardo leads 3.17 to 2.20 after starting out the season looking pretty bad. Kennedy hasn’t been too bad either but it seems like he’s more likely to give up a lot of runs…and ERA is the biggest difference between the two at this point.
    Projected winner: Y. Gallardo (Nate)
  2. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: D. Fister or J. Garcia?
    Garcia leads -0.80 to -1.28. Fister has a great opportunity to separate himself from Garcia (on the DL) but has just been horrible in his last few starts. I think Fister will turn it around in the 2nd half since we’ve seen better from him.
    Projected winner: D. Fister (Nate)
  3. Over/Under 450 ABs for R. Ibanez?
    Ibanez is at 221 ABs and is on pace for 421 ABs. He’s still putting together a decent year but his playing time has dwindled over the last month. It’s not out of the question that he could reach 450 ABs but that’ll only happen if someone goes down with a injury, forcing the Yankees to play him more.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  4. Who will win the 2012 baseball Man’s League?
    I’m still sticking with GirlfriendHates Matthew Andrew (Team Nate) but it’s really hard to predict who’ll win any league, especially in a H2H format since all it times to win is a hot week or two.
    Projected winner: GirlfriendHates Matthew Andrew (Nate)
  5. Who will have more saves: J. Broxton or G. Holland?
    Broxton leads 21 saves to 0. You can probably lock this one up, even if Broxton gets traded.
    Projected winner: J. Broxton (Nate)
  6. Will A. Bailey have over/under 19.5 saves?
    Bailey is supposed to be back in late August/early September and it would take a miracle for him to rack up 20 saves in that short amount of time.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  7. Who will win the Tout Wars $1 draft?
    Nate’s currently leading 6-4, with firm leads in Runs, HRs, RBIs and SVs. Matthew has a firm lead in Ks, Wins and SBs. WHIP can really go either direction and while it would seem that Nate has a comfortable lead in BA and ERA, I wouldn’t be surprised to see these two categories be a little more competitive, given the low number of innings and at bats.
    Projected winner: Team Nate
  8. Who will win more 5×5 categories: R. Detwiler or B. Beavan?
    Detwiler is currently leading in all categories and Beavan isn’t in the majors. It’ll take an implosion by Detwiler for Beavan to even have a shot at winning this (he’d also need to pick up at least 2 wins).
    Projected winner: R. Detwiler (Nate)
  9. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: A. Jackson or B. Boesch?
    Jackson currently leads 7.24 to 1.46. Jackson has been fairly consistent this year and has a huge lead in Runs and BA. Boesch on the other hand is struggling to get playing time with Quintin Berry stealing ABs from him.
    Projected winner: A. Jackson (Nate)
  10. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: C. Pena or K. Morales?
    Morales leads 2.15 to 1.67. Pena should be leading this bet but his BA is killing his chances. There’s an 88 point difference between the two BAs, or a difference of 3.39 points on the Player Rater.
    Projected winner: K. Morales (Matthew)
  11. Over/Under 18 SBs for J. Heyward?
    Heyward has 11 steals and has really stopped running. He still only needs to have 8 more steals to break 18 and he has 8 in April alone. I still think he’s capable of having a month with 4+ SBs. However, if on September 1st, he’s only at 12 SBs I may think again about his ability to reach 18.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  12. Who has more saves from 4-30-12 on: Any single White Sox P or H. Santiago?
    Addison Reed leads 13 saves to 0. Reed has had his issues but you don’t hear of any talk that he’d be out of the closer role. I’d be surprised if Santiago managed to even pick a save at this point.
    Projected winner: Any single White Sox P (Nate)
  13. Over/Under 3.75 for C. Zambrano from 5-14-12 on?
    The Zambrano we all know has returned as his ERA sits at 6.32 for this wager. He’ll need to repeat his April numbers again if he wants to even get close to 3.75 ERA for the rest of the season.
    Projected winner: Over (Nate)
  14. Will J. Reddick be a top 35 OF on the Player Rater?
    Reddick currently is #16 on the OF Player Rater. His Player Rater value is 7.48 and the #35 player is Andre Ethier at 4.78. He’s already begun to regress a bit but the performance he’s put in so far should help keep him in the 25-30 range for the season.
    Projected winner: Top 35 OF (Matthew)
  15. Over/Under 17 HRs for G. Beckham?
    Beckham currently has 9 HRs and is on pace for 17 HRs. He’s had productive 2nd halfs in the past but last year is was pretty atrocious so it’s difficult to say what he’s going to do. He’s had a solid May and June so I’m inclined to believe he’ll keep up this pace and finish just over 17 HRs. But I’ve owned Beckham in the past and would not be surprised if he imploded.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  16. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 6-25-12 on: K. Youkilis or W. Middlebrooks?
    Youkilis is leading 4 of the 5 categories (SBs going to Middlebrooks) and has taken advantage of the change of scenery and Middlebrooks’ injury. Youk should continue to perform at a high level and I have my doubts about Middlebrooks. He currently sports a K/BB ratio of about 4 so he’s been a bit lucky. This bet may be close for another month or so and then I think Middlebrooks will hit the wall.
    Projected winner: Youkilis (Nate)
  17. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 6-25-12 on: T. Bauer or A. Burnett?
    Burnett leads 4-1 but all the categories are fairly close after 3 starts. Bauer definitely has the higher upside but we’ll see if he can manage to perform at a high level in the majors. I’m siding with upside here since it’s easier to side with that than Burnett.
    Projected winner: Bauer (Nate)

At the midpoint of the season, I’m projecting Nate to destroy Matthew 14-5. Matthew does have a knack for making these boards close at the end but it’s really not looking like that’ll happen this year. Maybe some creative (read: weaselly) bets from Matthew will swing this in his favor but until then your safe bet for your jellybeans is with Nate.