2012 Baseball Board Recap #1


Foreshadowing of the 2012 baseball board?

Now that the season has been under way for just about two months, it’ll be a little easier to speculate on the wagers. The board will be updated each week on Monday and recaps every other week. Once the season starts to near its conclusion, I’ll provide more frequent updates.

Open Wagers:

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Y. Gallardo or I. Kennedy?
    Kennedy leads 1.21 to 0.18. Both players are not pitching up to expectations, especially Gallardo. The walk rate for Gallardo concerns me and unless he can correct whatever issue he is having, I don’t think he’ll win this bet.
    Projected winner: I. Kennedy (Matthew)
  2. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: D. Fister or J. Garcia?
    Garcia leads the bet 0.99 to 0.44. The month on the DL for Fister will handicap him for a little while but I like what I’ve seen from him so far. Garcia’s WHIP is what has me leaning in Fister’s favor in this bet.
    Projected winner: D. Fister (Nate)
  3. Over/Under 450 ABs for R. Ibanez?
    Ibanez is at 114 ABs and is on pace for 440 ABs. He’s been playing great so far this season and I think he’ll keep getting regular ABs but I’m little concerned about his pace. As long as he’s still productive, I think he’ll probably play 5 times a week. This will be a really close bet but right now I think he’ll end up just shy of 450.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  4. Who will win the 2012 baseball Man’s League?
    It’s really way too early to make any sort of projection on this. Just going by records, the Team Matthew division looks to be strongest but I’m planting my flag on GirlfriendHates Matthew Andrew (Team Nate) since he’s got Josh Hamilton and he could probably win 4 of the batting categories for his team in a week.
    Projected winner: GirlfriendHates Matthew Andrew (Nate)
  5. Who will have more saves: J. Broxton or G. Holland?
    Broxton leads 8 saves to 0. It’s currently Broxton’s job to lose and he’s been doing okay in the role. If he were to get traded or lose his job, I’m not sure who would be the next in line: Holland or Aaron Crow. I think Broxton will hold on the job just long enough to build up a big enough lead.
    Projected winner: J. Broxton (Nate)
  6. Will R. Delgado have over/under 11 starts?
    Delgado is currently at 8 starts and hasn’t been horrible. Unless he implodes in his next couple of starts, Delgado should easily get more than 11 starts.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  7. Will A. Bailey have over/under 19.5 saves?
    It’s looking like Bailey will return some time around August and that would give him 2-2.5 months to rack up 20 saves. It’s not impossible but it’s highly unlikely…and will he even get the closer role back?
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  8. Who will win the Tout Wars $1 draft?
    Nate’s currently leading 7-3, with firm leads in Runs, HRs, and RBIs. Matthew has a firm lead in Ks, Wins and SBs. So that means this will most likely come down to the ratios. I like Nate’s pitchers since he’s got some pretty solid relievers who shouldn’t kill his WHIP or ERA. Matthew on the other hand has Blanton and Ross that could very well kill WHIP and ERA for him.
    Projected winner: Team Nate
  9. Who will win more 5×5 categories: R. Detwiler or B. Beavan?
    Detwiler is currently leading in all categories. This should be a close bet since it looks like IP, W and K will all be toss ups. I like Detwiler in this wager since he’s been pitching relatively consistently and should have a better shot at picking up wins.
    Projected winner: R. Detwiler (Nate)
  10. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: A. Jackson or B. Boesch?
    Jackson currently leads 7.52 to 2.19. The two major differences between the two are BA and Runs. Jackson should regress a bit but he’ll win this bet with his value in Runs and SBs.
    Projected winner: A. Jackson (Nate)
  11. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: C. Pena or K. Morales?
    Pena leads the wager 1.30 to 0.43. Pena is slightly under performing in the counting categories and Morales just isn’t getting enough at bats. Pena has 150+ ABs compared to Morales’ 110+ ABs. Morales appears to be hitting well and should hopefully get more consistent playing time. And once Pujols breaks out of his funk (assuming he does), then his stats should get a bump as well.
    Projected winner: K. Morales (Matthew)
  12. Over/Under 18 SBs for J. Heyward?
    Heyward has 9 steals and even though he hasn’t had a steal since May 4th, he’s still running enough (4 attempts in May) to go over 18 steals.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  13. Who has more saves from 4-30-12 on: Any single White Sox P or H. Santiago?
    Addison Reed is the new closer in Chicago and leads this bet 4 saves to 0. Reed was already the “closer of the future” for the White Sox so I think that he’ll hold on to this role for a while.
    Projected winner: Any single White Sox P (Nate)
  14. Over/Under 3.75 for C. Zambrano from 5-14-12 on?
    With one start under his belt since the wager was made, his ERA sits at 2.57. Since 2007, Zambrano has sported an ERA under 3.75 only once (2010). I’m skeptical of Zambrano, given his 2011 season, but maybe he’s happier in Miami and found his magic again. It’ll be a close bet, with his ERA (for this wager) being around 3.60.
    Projected winner: Under (Matthew)
  15. Will J. Reddick be a top 35 OF on the Player Rater?
    Reddick currently is #9 on the OF Player Rater. His value is 7.92 and the #35 player, Nick Markakis, is at 4.52. Reddick has some pop so maybe he’ll be able to keep this up. He’s still pretty young (25) so I’ll believe in what he’s doing at the moment with the expectation he’ll run in a big slump. I still think he’s a top 35 OF though.
    Projected winner: Top 35 OF (Matthew)

In the first projection of the season, Nate is leading 9-6. There’s still plenty of time for Matthew to make a comeback and for many more wagers to be placed, but this is an all to familiar spot for Matthew to be in. Will be make a comeback and win the board or will Nate continue his recent dominance of the board?