2011 Baseball Board Recap: 1 Week Left


There’s just a few weeks left in the 2011 baseball season so it’s time to take a long overdue look at the where all the bets stand. There’s a lot to go over, so let’s not waste any more time and see where we are at.

Closed:

  1. Will Logan Morrison hit 19 HRs?
    I kind of thought this bet was going to be a push after LoMo hadn’t played for a couple of days. I fully expected the Marlins’ front office had shut him down for the season. But LoMo came through for Matthew and currently has 21 HRs.
    Winner: Over (Matthew)

Should be conceded:

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Curtis Granderson or Mike Stanton?
    It’s hard to top one of the better fantasy players this season. Any other player and Stanton probably would’ve had a good shot at beating him on the Player Rater.
    Winner: Curtis Granderson (Nate)
  2. Will M. Scherzer finish 10 or spots higher on the Player Rater than D. Hudson?
    Daniel Hudson overcame his slow start and ended up being the pitcher we thought he would be. Scherzer just really never put it together this season.
    Winner: No (Nate)
  3. Who wins more 5×5 categories: Freddie Freeman or Brandon Belt?
    Freeman had a very nice rookie campaign and didn’t have to deal with a front office demoting/promoting him several times this season.
    Winner: Freddie Freeman (Nate)
  4. Who has more saves (TB Rays RPs)?
    Who really would’ve thought that Kyle Farnsworth would have the most saves on the Rays? He managed to keep the job for most of the year and didn’t allow this bet to be remotely close.
    Winner: Farnsworth, Howell, Sonnanstine (Matthew)
  5. Will Chris Tillman have an ERA over/under 4.75?
    Tillman showed promise for a while there but managed to get sucked in to the black hole of mediocrity in Baltimore.
    Winner: Over (Nate)
  6. Will Ryan Hanigan hit 11 HRs?
    Hanigan is sitting at 6 HRs and really hasn’t done anything since early April.
    Winner: Under (Matthew)
  7. Will Scott Baker finish 5 spots higher than Brian Duensing on the Player Rater?
    Baker was a fairly solid pitcher this year, while Duensing had some rather large implosions and his performance the previous seasons really suckered Matthew in. This really wasn’t close as there is currently about a 170 player difference between the two pitchers.
    Winner: Yes (Nate)
  8. Who wins more 5×5 categories: Logan Morrison or Ben Francisco?
    Francisco had a good slump there that cost him his starting gig and that really cut in to his production. This was a close bet for a while, but LoMo was able to get the at bats and racked up the counting stats.
    Winner: Logan Morrison (Nate)
  9. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Bud Norris or Justin Masterson?
    Masterson really had a breakout year and did most of his damage in the middle of the season.
    Winner: Justin Masterson (Matthew)
  10. Who wins more 5×5 categories (in home starts): Jason Marquis or Dustin Moseley?
    Both guys are on the DL and will probably end the season there. Moseley wins 3-2 after taking IP, WHIP and K; all by the narrow margins.
    Winner: Dustin Moseley (Matthew)
  11. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-5-11: Zack Greinke or Max Scherzer?
    Greinke really dominated in Ks, Wins and WHIP. He even got his ERA under control and should sweep this bet 5-0.
    Winner: Zack Greinke (Nate)
  12. Who has more RBIs from 5-18-11: Miguel Montero or Alex Avila?
    Both guys had really put together nice stats since 5-18-11 (hence why their 5×5 bet is still close) but Montero was much more consistent at driving in runs and never went more than a week without a RBI.
    Winner: Miguel Montero (Nate)
  13. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-18-11: Asdrubal Cabrera or Mike Aviles?
    Matthew can blame Mike Moustakas for Aviles’ numbers looking horrible.  The rookie’s call up absolutely killed Aviles’ playing time but he started to put up some numbers after getting some PT in Boston.
    Winner: Asdrubal Cabrera (Nate)
  14. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-18-11: Nick Swisher or Alex Gordon?
    Alex Gordon will win this bet after dominating BA, R and SB. Surprisingly, the power numbers were fairly similar. I think it’s safe to say that the top prospect we thought Gordon would be has arrived.
    Winner: Alex Gordon (Matthew)
  15. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-19-11: Jonathan Papelbon or Chris Perez?
    Chris Perez may only win saves and even that isn’t a certainty. Papelbon really mopped up the board with Perez and easily won ERA, WHIP, W and Ks.
    Winner: Jonathan Papelbon (Nate)
  16. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 6-17-11: Dustin Ackley or Gordon Beckham?
    Dustin Ackley showed that he can be a serviceable fantasy player and put up a solid line. Beckham, on the other hand, continued to disappoint. I’ll go out on a limb and say ‘post-hype sleeper’ for Beckham in 2012?
    Winner: Dustin Ackley (Nate)
  17. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 6-29-11: Hiroki Kuroda or Jeff Karstens?
    Break out the brooms, Kuroda should sweep all categories.
    Winner: Hiroki Kuroda (Nate)
  18. Who will have a lower ERA from 7-7-11: Zack Greinke or Jair Jurrjens?
    Get the high horse ready, Nate saw Jurrjens’ collapse coming and smartly made this bet. Greinke has about a 3.50 advantage in ERA.
    Winner: Zack Greinke (Nate)
  19. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 7-12-11: Alexi Ogando or Max Scherzer?
    Finally, betting on Scherzer pays off for Matthew as Ogando hit the wall and his numbers were not all that impressive. Scherzer wasn’t great but he pitched well enough not to suck.
    Winner: Max Scherzer (Matthew)
  20. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 7-12-11: Randy Wolf or Brandon Morrow?
    Morrow destroyed Wolf in Ks but lived up to his new nickname, Morrible. He actually wasn’t that bad but his high WHIP and ERA blew any sort of shot he had at winning this bet.
    Winner: Randy Wolf (Nate)

Down to the wire:

  1. Ravitz-Berry $1 Draft Special
    This one is coming down to a couple of pitching categories. Currently, they’re tied up at 5-5, with WHIP and K’s still up for grabs. Matthew is behind in these categories and Nate isn’t can’t make up any ground in any other categories. So, this bet is either a push or a TMR win.
    Projected: Push
  2. Will Drew Stubbs be a top 25 OF on the Player Rater?
    He’s sitting at #24 with a PR of 7.00. The next 3 players behind him are: 6.99, 6.91 and 6.90. It’s going to be extremely close but I think he’ll end up #25, and edging out #26 by 0.04.
    Projected: Yes (Matthew)
  3. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-5-11: Zack Greinke or Tim Hudson?
    Greinke leads this 4-1 but one short, bad start for him and that may open to door to Hudson to take WHIP and IP.
    Projected: Zack Greinke (Nate)
  4. Will the Pittsburg Pirates win over/under 73 games?
    They’re sitting on 68 wins and have 8 games left. Those games are against the Diamondbacks, Red and Brewers.
    Projected: Under (Nate)
  5. Who wins more 5×5 categories: Mat Latos or Ubaldo Jimenez?
    Latos is winning 3-2 with a narrow lead in IP, 2.1 innings and he only trails Ubaldo by 3 Ks.
    Projected: Mat Latos (Nate)
  6. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-18-11: Miguel Montero or Alex Avila?
    Avila leads 2-1-2. The only decided categories are BA (Avila) and RBI (Montero). Runs are separated by 1 and HR & SB are the same. Neither guy is going to steal another base and both have been reasonably hot the last few weeks. This one is really a toss up.
    Projected: Too close to call
  7. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-26-11: Zack Greinke or Yovanni Gallardo?
    Greinke leads the bet 3-2 and the winner will most likely be the pitcher that manages to rack up the most innings. They’re currently separated by only 1 inning at the moment. If the Brewers rotation stays on schedule, then YoGa will have 2 starts left and Greinke will have 1.
    Projected: Yovanni Gallardo (Matthew)
  8. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 7-11-11: Carlos Santana or Alex Avila?
    Santana leads 4-1 but has a narrow lead in R and RBI. It’ll only take a few good games for Avila to take these categories and the bet, but just one big RBI game from Santana and this bet is over.
    Projected: Carlos Santana (Nate)
  9. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 7-27-11: Derek Jeter or J.J. Hardy?
    The bet currently stands at 2-2-1, where Runs are tied up. Jeter has won BA and SB while Hardy has won HR and RBI. I like the Yankees chance to score more runs at this point but if Jeter sits any days to rest up for the playoffs (cue Mora), then Hardy may steal this bet.
    Projected: Derek Jeter (Nate)
  10. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 8-9-11: Adam Dunn or Trayvon Robinson?
    Yeah, so Adam Dunn…there’s always 2012 to rebound. Trayvon should win this bet but Dunn could go nuts and hit 2 HRs, tally 7 runs and steal 2 bases to win himself this bet.
    Projected: Trayvon Robinson (Matthew)

So, as we head in to the last week of regular season play, we have 10 bets that need to be decided. But I think the board is squarely in Nate’s hands at this point. Not adding in the close bets, Nate is leading 16-8. Of the remaining bets, Nate is favored in 5 of them, while Matthew is favored in 3 and 2 being pushes. It’s not out of the question that Matthew could make this board close in the end but my money jellybeans are on Nate to win the 2011 baseball board.

If the projections hold, Nate will win the board 21-11-2.

I’ll continue to post more regularly to update that status of the close wagers so you can play along at home.