2011 Baseball Board – All-Star Break Recap

Now’s a good enough time to take a look the board and see where everything stands at the halfway point in the 2011 MLB season. There’s a lot of bets to go over so let’s get right in to it.

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: C. Granderson or M. Stanton?
    Granderson has been locked in all season and it doesn’t look like he’s going to let up any time soon. Even if he did, he’d still hold a substantial lead over Stanton in the SB department.
    Projected Winner: Granderson (Nate)
  2. Ravitz-Berry $1 Draft Special
    While it’s currently tied 5-5, this will be a lot easier for Matthew’s team to pull out the win as he can pick up wins in several of the pitching categories. TMR has 4 of 5 batting categories locked down.
    Projected Winner: Team Matthew
  3. Will Drew Stubbs be a top 25 OF on the Player Rater?
    He’s faltered a bit recently but he’ll still produce enough to stay close to the top 25. It’ll be close but ultimately his power/speed combo will keep him near the top.
    Projected Winner: Yes (Matthew)
  4. Will M. Scherzer finish 10 or spots higher on the Player Rater than D. Hudson?
    What happened to Scherzer? He was looking pretty great at the start of the season but has regressed to average since then. Hudson on the other hand put together a nice stretch and got out of the early season funk he was in. Scherzer needs to show me that he can be dominant again before I’ll sway this in his favor.
    Projected Winner: No (Matthew)
  5. Who wins more 5×5 categories: F. Freeman or B. Belt?
    Freeman performed quite nicely once he got used to the Majors. Even if Belt comes back up, he’s got quite a hole to come out of.
    Projected Winner: Freeman (Nate)
  6. Who has more saves: McGee/Peralta/Cruz or Farnsworth/Howell/Sonnanstine?
    Farnsworth has this role locked down and Howell even picked up a save when Farnsworth didn’t. It’s looking like it’ll take a couple of injuries for Nate’s trio to make a run at this.
    Projected Winner: Matthew’s trio
  7. Will Chris Tillman have an ERA over/under 4.75?
    Tillman will be back at some point this season as the Orioles need for him to get Major League experience. His minor league numbers aren’t all that impressive so far, so it’s not looking positive for him in the sub-4.75 ERA department.
    Projected Winner: Over (Nate)
  8. Will Ryan Hanigan hit 11 HRs?
    So much for that hot start. Hanigan only has 3 HRs on the season and is playing 3-4 times a week.
    Projected Winner: Under (Matthew)
  9. Will Scott Baker finish 5 spots higher than Brian Duensing on the Player Rater?
    Duensing’s poor stretch of starts really put him out of the race, while Baker has been dealing. I think it’s too much of a gap for Duensing to overcome at this point.
    Projected Winner: Yes (Nate)
  10. Will Logan Morrison hit 19 HRs?
    He’s got 12 HRs and is on pace for 21 HRs. While his BA has taken a dive, he’s still putting the occasional ball out of the year. 7 HRs to hit in over the next 10 weeks or so shouldn’t be too difficult.
    Projected Winner: Over (Matthew)
  11. Who wins more 5×5 categories: L. Morrison or B. Francisco?
    LoMo currently leads 4-1 but RBI and R are still pretty close. If Francisco can get playing time more consistently he’ll have a better shot at this but until then, this is LoMo’s to win.
    Projected Winner: Morrison (Nate)
  12. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: B. Norris or J. Masterson?
    Masterson so far has been outperforming Norris and holds a 1.4 lead on the Player Rater. The Astros are turrible and it should make it difficult for Norris to make up any ground in the win category. This bet could easily shift if Masterson gets rocked in a couple of outings but he’s looking consistent this year.
    Projected Winner: Masterson (Matthew)
  13. Who wins more 5×5 categories (in home starts): J. Marquis or D. Moseley?
    Marquis is currently sweeping all categories but 4 categories can be decided by either one good or bad start. Marquis’ BB/K rate scares me and Moseley pitches at Petco. Needless to say, I’ll put my faith in the Padre pitcher.
    Projected Winner: Moseley (Matthew)
  14. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-5-11: Z. Greinke or T. Hudson?
    Greinke leads 4-1 but IP, WHIP and W are close. It’ll be a close bet and I think Greinke will get it together and not surrender so many runs (which should in turn mean a lower WHIP).
    Projected Winner: Greinke (Nate)
  15. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-5-11: Z. Greinke or M. Scherzer?
    It’s surprisingly close but the one category that you’d expect Scherzer to keep pace in (Ks), he’s getting steamrolled. I like Greinke to keep improving upon his numbers while Scherzer will continue to wallow in his mediocrity.
    Projected Winner: Greinke (Nate)
  16. Will J. Ellsbury hit over/under 12.5 HRs?
    He’s at 11 HRs and just needs to hit 2 more the rest of the season. It’s highly unlikely that he won’t do this, unless Stephania trades for him.
    Projected Winner: Over (Matthew)
  17. Will the Pittsburg Pirates win over/under 73 games?
    The Pirates are looking legit unless they completely fall apart they should win at least half their games (or for those that can’t count, 81).
    Projected Winner: Over (Matthew)
  18. Who wins more 5×5 categories: M. Latos or U. Jimenez?
    Another pitching bet that is really too close to call. Either one can win this bet but for the moment, I’ll go with the guy that pitches in Petco.
    Projected Winner: Latos (Nate)
  19. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-18-11: M. Montero or A. Avila?
    The most surprising thing about this bet is the lack of runs from Avila. That’s really the only category that he’s got a big deficit in. Other than that, the two catchers look to be fairly equal.
    Projected Winner: Montero (Nate)
  20. Who has more RBIs from 5-18-11: M. Montero or A. Avila?
    Montero leads by 8 RBI. I really see both guys as the same right now so I’ll take the guy who has the lead at the moment.
    Projected Winner: Montero (Nate)
  21. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-18-11: A. Cabrera or M. Aviles?
    Call of the year right here…Asdrubal has won this bet, in July! Okay, I’m probably not going out on a limb on that. But can someone put an APB out on Aviles?
    Projected Winner: Cabrera (Nate)
  22. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-18-11: N. Swisher or A. Gordon?
    This was a bet I was not expecting to see to be so close. I had no idea that Swisher has been this solid since mid-May and that Gordon was keeping pace. Gordon should be able to win BA and SB but Swisher has a more potent offense and more power. This will come down to a couple of runs and RBIs.
    Projected Winner: Swisher (Nate)
  23. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-19-11: J. Papelbon or C. Perez?
    Papelbon leads this 3-2 but hasn’t looked good doing so. He’ll win the K category but he’s way behind in ERA and WHIP. W and SV are looking like they’ll be a toss-up and I like BOS to provide more opportunity for Papelbon to add to these categories. In fantasy, I’d rather have Perez but the board is a different matter.
    Projected Winner: Papelbon (Nate)
  24. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-26-11: Z. Greinke or Y. Gallardo?
    Gallardo leads 3-2 but it’s yet another pitching bet that’s going to come down to the wire. Mark it as another Greinke win as I just trust him more than Gallardo, despite the high ERA.
    Projected Winner: Greinke (Nate)
  25. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 6-17-11: D. Ackley or G. Beckham?
    Ackley is currently sweeping all categories but he’ll probably hit the rookie wall at some point and allow Beckham to sneak back in there. Beckham played pretty well last season and he could very well do it again. I’ll take the guy that’s been in the majors longer at this point.
    Projected Winner: Beckham (Matthew)
  26. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 6-29-11: H. Kuroda or J. Karstens?
    Way too early to read anything in to two starts in this bet and it’s really hard to say who’ll win this one. Both have been very solid pitchers this year but I have to believe that playing on the Dodgers will wear a bit on Kuroda, while the Pirates will keep playing the underdog.
    Projected Winner: Karstens (Matthew)
  27. Who will have a lower ERA from 7-7-11: Z. Greinke or J. Jurrjens?
    Both guys will even out to ERAs in the low 3s. I’ve gotta go with Jurrjens at this point since he’s just been so lights out, and I don’t to write down Greinke’s name again.
    Projected Winner: Jurrjens (Matthew)
  28. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 7-11-11: C. Santana or A. Avila?
    Santana is slowly coming around and I like his power more than Avila’s so I’m throwing RBI and HR in to his corner. I’m also putting R in Santana’s corner since it’s really surprising to see Avila on pace for only 53 runs.
    Projected Winner: Santana (Nate)

Tallying everything up, Nate is projected to win the 15 of the 28 open bets. Add in his other 2 wins and he’s easily winning the board. It’s not looking too likely that Matthew will be able to use the Shania Twain bet to weasel his way in to a board win this year, but the baseball season is long and a lot can happen between now and the end of the season.
Nate wins the board 17-13.