2011 Baseball Board – April/May Recap

It’s about that time to review the board bets that have been made so far, since there’s no some actual data behind the bets. Did Matthew or Nate capitalize on hot starts and sucker the other in to a bet? Who’s going to win the board this? Why aren’t there any nonsense bets?

Closed Bets

  1. Who has more RBIs: Billy Butler or Kendrys Morales?
    Not exactly the first bet I thought would be decided. Needless to say, Morales’ injury ends this bet before I really even got started. Matthew once again loses for being optimistic about a player’s potential. Negativity is the real winner here.
    Winner: Butler (Nate)

Open Bets

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Granderson or Stanton?
    Curtis Granderson has gotten off to great start while Stanton was injured for a couple of weeks and that put him in hole. Granderson looks like he’ll be able to match Stanton’s power so it’ll most like come down to the SB department.
    Projection: Granderson (Nate)
  2. Ravitz-Berry $1 Draft Special
    Matthew looks like he’s got a strangle hold on the offense while Nate has a good lead in pitching. But Nate isn’t dominating the pitching categories so I can see Matthew sneak out a win in the K’s department and win this 6-4.
    Projection: Matthew
  3. Will Drew Stubbs be a top 25 OF on the Player Rater?
    Stubbs is looking like a fantasy stud by putting up numbers in all categories. To give some perspective, the #25 OF is Ryan Roberts at 5.51, while Stubbs is #5 at 10.39. Last year, Stubbs finished at #23 and he’s doing what he did last year so he should comfortably finish in the top 25.
    Projection: Yes (Matthew)
  4. Will M. Scherzer finish 10 or spots higher on the Player Rater than D. Hudson?
    The only thing bad about Scherzer’s stat line right now is his WHIP. Everything else is looking great, especially the 6 wins. Hudson is finally coming around but he’ll have to put together a great month or two to catch up to Scherzer. Considering the hype around Hudson, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish close to Scherzer but with pitching great again this year it may prove difficult to catch up.
    Projection: Yes (Nate)
  5. Who wins more 5×5 categories: Freddie Freeman or Brandon Belt?
    Belt’s in the minors so it’s Freeman’s time to pull way ahead in the counting categories…except, he’s not really doing anything. One huge week from Belt, once he gets called up again, and he’s right there with Freeman. Right now, I have to give it to Freeman just because he’ll keep collecting stats and it’s unknown when Belt will be back.
    Projection: Freeman (Nate)
  6. Who has more TB Rays saves?
    Kyle Farnsworth has actually been a pretty solid closer so far this year so he appears to have locked down this role. If he screws up, it looks like Joel Peralta would be next in line as he’s doing the 8th inning work.
    Projection: Farnsworth/Howell/Sonnanstine (Matthew)
  7. Will Chris Tillman have an ERA over/under 4.75?
    Even with a solid outing his last time out, Tillman’s ERA is still 6.15.  I think he’ll get it down around 5.10 but I don’t think he’ll get it under the magical 4.75 due to his K/BB ratio and WHIP…he’s just putting too many guys on base.
    Projection: Over (Nate)
  8. Will Ryan Hanigan hit 11 HRs?
    Since this bet was made on April 4th, Hanigan has hit exactly ZERO homeruns. He’s currently projected to hit 9 this season. He’s played in about half of the Reds games. Out of his 21 hits, only 5 have gone for extra base hits. What I’m trying to say, is that Hanigan doesn’t get enough playing time and when he does play, it’s very unlikely he’ll do anything more than pick up some singles.
    Projection: Under (Matthew)
  9. Will Scott Baker finish 5 spots higher than Brian Duensing on the Player Rater?
    This has actually been a really good bet, despite Duensing’s last two appearance (he pitched in relief and got rocked). Baker may look like he’s in control on the Player Rater (66 vs 94) but Duensing is only 1.3 points behind. Baker should be able to hold on to the win given his ability to consistently strike batters out.
    Projection: Yes (Nate)
  10. Will Logan Morrison hit 19 HRs?
    Morrison currently has 4 HRs on the season, but missed two weeks due to a foot injury. His current projection is for 18 HRs. I think he could hit 19 HRs this year but he doesn’t have any evidence to back that up.
    Projection: Under (Nate)
  11. Who wins more 5×5 categories: Logan Morrison or Ben Francisco?
    For a while there, Francisco looked like he was going to run away with this while Morrison was injured but May came around. Francisco only has 2 hits this month and with Domonic Brown waiting for the call-up, Francisco’s time may start to diminish.  Morrison is showing that he’s a better hitter and should be able to catch up to Francisco in little time.
    Projection: Morrison (Nate)
  12. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Bud Norris or Justin Masterson?
    I’m not buying in to Masterson a whole lot and I think he’s gotten lucky with the wins it’s the reason why he’s currently beating Norris. Masterson should regress a little and allow Norris to make this close. I still like Masterson since he is on the better team and has a better chance to pick up wins.
    Projection: Masterson (Matthew)
  13. Who wins more 5×5 categories in home starts: Dustin Moseley or Jason Marquis?
    Marquis has been fantastic at home, while Moseley has one really bad outing that’s skewed his stats. I don’t believe that Marquis can pitch this great all season long, but he’s certainly given himself a nice cushion early on. This one will eventually get to be pretty close. I’m curious to see what Moseley can do for a full season.
    Projection: Moseley (Matthew)
  14. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-5-11: Zack Greinke or Tim Hudson?
    This will be a close bet. Greinke should win Ks, Hudson should win ERA. WHIP & IP should be close and I give a slight advantage to Hudson for wins.
    Projection: Hudson (Matthew)
  15. Who wins more 5×5 categories from 5-5-11: Zack Greinke or Max Scherzer?
    Same run down again…Greinke should win IP and WHIP. Scherzer will take wins. ERA and K should be pretty close. Scherzer’s WHIP scares me and that could easily lead to some pretty bad outing that’ll inflate his ERA.
    Projection: Greinke (Nate)
  16. Will J. Ellsbury hit over/under 12.5 HRs?
    He’s never hit more than 9 HRs in career and he’s currently on pace for 18 HRs. He’ll probably set a new career high this season but he’s never shown this sort of pop before so I like him to go a long time between HRs.
    Projection: Under (Nate)
  17. Will the Pittsburg Pirates win over/under 73 games?
    The Pirates should be able to hang around .500 this year. The NL Central is not a very strong division and once Alvarez and Tabata start hitting again, they should have a pretty decent offense.
    Projection: Over (Matthew)

If the bets were to close today, Nate would win 10-8. The season is still early so a lot of these bets could easily change by the next time I recap all the bets.

I plan on doing these recaps every month or so and you can also check out the the top right of the site for a quick look at where the bets current stand and how they’re projected to end up.