2010 Football Board – Week 13 Recap 1


Another week is in the books and with only four more weeks left, we should start to get a pretty good idea how the board is going to play out.  Can Matthew Berry stage a remarkable comeback or will Nate continue his dominance?
NOTE: Check back in later once someone releases the Revis/Welker stat for that board wager update.

Completed Bets:

  1. Will Revis cover Welker for 70% of NE’s snaps?
    I’ll update this once this stat is available.
    Looking at the polls, 74% of you thought sided with Nate and thought that Revis wouldn’t cover Welker for 70% of the snaps.
    Projected winner: No (Nate)
  2. Who has more fantasy points in week 13: Jay Cutler or Matt Cassel?
    Cutler eeked out the win 12-11 but it was only 4 passing yards away from it being a tie.
    A whopping 83% of you correctly picked Cutler to outperform Cassel this week. Granted that was only out of 6 votes…
    Winner: Cutler (Matthew)

Open Bets:

  1. Who has more fantasy points: Clinton Portis or C.J. Spiller?
    Portis is at 37 pts and Spiller is at 31 pts. Spiller had 7 carries for 35 yards in week 13 so it appears his injury is behind him.  He’ll continue to chip away at Portis’ lead over the next couple of weeks and is a TD carry away from winning this bet.
    Projected winner: Spiller (Nate)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <—–—-|–——o->Nate
  2. Who has more fantasy points: Wes Welker or Mike Sims-Walker?
    Welker is at 105 pts and Sims-Walker is at 64 pts. Sims-Walker hasn’t done anything for a month and in that time Welker has come back to life.
    Projected winner: Welker (Matthew)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <–0—––|—-——>Nate
  3. Who has more fantasy points: Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller?
    Jackson is at 115 pts and Spiller is at 31 pts. It’ll take a season ending injury and a spectacular performance by Spiller for this bet to change.
    Projected winner: Jackson (Matthew)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <0——–|———->Nate
  4. Who has more fantasy points: Donald Brown or Cadillac Williams?
    Brown is at 46 pts and Williams is at 70 pts. Both stunk it up in week 13 but at least Cadillac seems capable of pulling off a long rushing TD every once in a while.
    Projected winner: Williams (Nate)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <——–|—0—>Nate
  5. Will Tom Brady throw at least 31 TDs?
    Brady currently has 27 TD passes and is on pace for 36 TDs. Brady had another solid week and should go over 31 TDs in the next two weeks.
    Projected winner: over 31 TDs (Nate)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <——–|—--0->Nate
  6. Will Joe Flacco throw for 4,000 yards?
    Flacco has thrown for 2,988 yards and is on pace for 3,984. Week 13 was pretty decent for Flacco and it’s what he’ll need to do every week if he wants to surpass 4,000 yards.
    Projected winner: Over 4,000 yards (Matthew)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <——0|——-—>Nate
  7. Who has more fantasy points: LaDainian Tomlinson or Leon Washington?
    Tomlinson is at 132 pts and Washington is at 16 pts. This bet is over.
    Projected winner: Tomlinson (Matthew)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <0——–|———->Nate
  8. Who has more receiving yards: Felix Jones (-50 yds) or Marion Barber?
    Jones has 304 yards (factoring in the handicap) and Barber has 49 yards receiving. Barber isn’t a part of the passing game at all so his shot at reaching Jones is next to impossible.
    Projected winner: Jones (Matthew)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <0——–|———->Nate
  9. Who has more fantasy points from week 2 on: Shonn Greene or Matt Forte (-10 pts)?
    Forte has 108 pts (factoring in the handicap) and Greene has 66 pts. I think the hole is too big for Greene at this point.  He just doesn’t score touchdowns, unlike Forte who finds the end zone every once in a while.
    Projected winner: Forte (Nate)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <——–|——o—->Nate
  10. Who has more fantasy points from week 6 on: Dustin Keller or Vernon Davis?
    Keller has 24 pts and Davis has 51 pts. There’s way too many offensive weapons in NYJ for Keller to really get a consistent amount of points. Davis probably won this bet with his 18 pt performance in week 13.
    Projected winner: Davis (Nate)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <——–|——-0–>Nate
  11. Who has more fantasy points from week 8 on: Pierre Garcon or Miles Austin?
    Garcon has 36 pts and Austin has 54 pts. It was nice for Garcon to finally show up in week 13 for fantasy owners. I still like Austin to perform a little better the rest of the way since Dez Bryant is done for the year and he should get an uptick in looks from Kitna. Garcon’s situation hasn’t been any different the last couple of weeks in Indy so I can’t really see him repeating his week 13 performance with any confidence.
    Projected winner: Austin (Nate)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <0—-—|———->Nate
  12. Who has more fantasy points from week 9 on: Felix Jones or Ronnie Brown?
    Jones has 44 pts and Brown has 39 pts. Jones seems to be a bigger part of the offense in Dallas than Brown is in Miami.  There’s also the fact that Brown stinks that doesn’t play in to his favor.
    Projected winner: Jones (Matthew)
    Confidence Meter: TMR <—-0—|———->Nate

Nate is projected to win the board 16-11. Nate has clearly gotten the better of Matthew this year in the football board.  It’ll take a remarkable turnaround or some really weaselly moves for Matthew to win the board.

P.S. Still looking for a graphics wizard to create something that looks better than my ASCII art for the Confidence Meter.

  • Dan

    Very nice analysis. It’ll be nice to avoid yet another board tie (though if they would just ensure that they had an odd number of bets, it likely wouldn’t be an issue).