2010 Baseball Board: September Update #2 1


Stats compiled through 9/21/10 games.

Since the last update, a couple of bets have been decided (Ichiro and Duensing) and a couple more have gotten very interesting.

Down to the wire:

  1. Will Bobby Jenks save 30 games?
    Jenks is currently dealing with a forearm injury and it’s not looking good for him to pick up the 3 saves he needs to get to 30. Ozzie Guillen hasn’t ruled out him for the season but I don’t think he’ll get enough chances if he does pitch again this year.
    Projected winner: under 30 saves (Matthew)
  2. Will Kelly Johnson hit 25 homeruns?
    Currently at 23 HRs and on pace for 25 HRs. Johnson has surged recently but I still don’t like him to hit 2 more the rest of the season…but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him top 25 HRs given how he started the season.
    Projected winner: Under 25 HRs (Nate)
  3. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Daisuke Matsuzaka or Jair Jurrjens?
    Player IP BB H WHIP ERA K W
    Jurrjens 87.1 29 92 1.39 4.33 67 6
    Matsuzaka 80.2 37 80 1.46 5.13 70 4

    Jurrjens currently leads 4-1. Jair is in danger of having his season cut short so IP is no longer a lock for him. He still has Wins and ERA under control but the window is open for Matsuzaka to take IP, Ks and WHIP.
    Projected winner: Jurrjens (Nate)

  4. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Jaime Garcia or Dan Haren?
    Player IP BB H WHIP ERA K W
    Garcia 47.1 18 48 1.39 3.61 38 4
    Haren 61.1 19 56 1.22 3.23 51 3

    Haren has pitched great recently and has taken over the lead in this bet 4-1. With Garcia’s # of innings in question, Haren has locked up IP and K. Wins could very well be a push and WHIP & ERA are too close to call. I like Haren to win this bet since it’s looking like Garcia’s hit his wall.
    Projected winner: Haren (Nate)

All but locked up:

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Asdrubal Cabrera or Orlando Cabrera?
    Currently, Asdrubal (-0.62) is 41st and Orlando (2.07) is 23rd among SS. That’s a pretty big gap to make up in just a few weeks. Asdrubal would need a huge power surge to overtake Orlando but when he only 3 HRs on the season, this is highly unlikely.
    Projected winner: Orlando (Nate)
  2. Will Manny Ramirez hit over/under 27.5 homeruns?
    He currently has 9 homeruns on the season and is on pace for 10 homeruns. He’s not going to pull a Tulowitzki and hit 20 homeruns the rest of the month.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  3. Will Alberto Callaspo have 600 Plate Appearances?
    He currently has around 575 PAs and is on pace for over 620 PAs. He’s out there playing every day and picking up 3-4 PAs but he’s a minor injury away from making this bet really interesting.
    Projected winner: Over 600 PAs (Nate)
  4. Will Chone Figgins hit over/under his career BA (.291)?
    He’s currently hitting .259 and has surged in September but I think he’s dug too big a hole to get up to .291.
    Projected winner: Under .291 (Matthew)
  5. Who has a higher batting average (min 250 ABs), Alcides Escobar or Rafael Furcal?
    Currently, Escobar is hitting .237 while Furcal is hitting .299 and both players have at least 250 ABs. There’s not enough time left in the season for this to even get close.
    Projected winner: Furcal (Nate)
  6. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Kevin Slowey or Francisco Liriano?
    Currently, Liriano (6.14) is leading Slowey (3.25) on the Player Rater and holds a huge advantage in Ks and ERA. It would take an implosion on Liriano’s behalf for this to go in Slowey’s favor.
    Projected winner: Liriano (Matthew)
  7. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Adam Jones or Nick Markakis?
    Currently, Jones (5.28) is leading Markakis (4.47) with both players hitting pretty well recently. Markakis is trailing due to his lack of power. I don’t see him having a power surge to make up the difference.
    Projected winner: Jones (Matthew)
  8. Will David Wright hit 25.5 homeruns this season?
    He currently has 25 homeruns all he needs to do is hit one more in the last 11 games. I think he’ll hit at least one more before the season ends.
    Projected winner: Over (Nate)
  9. Who will have more saves on the Padres: Luke Gregerson or Mike Adams?
    Gregerson has vultured 2 saves so far to take the lead in this bet. At this point in the season, and with the Padres still in the playoff race, it’s not looking like anyone else besides Heath Bell will be picking up saves.
    Projected winner: Gregerson (Nate)
  10. Will John Danks finish 10 starting pitchers higher on the Player Rater than Max Scherzer?
    Currently Danks (5.12) is 36th and Scherzer (5.10) is 37th among SPs. I was wrong about this one last week as Scherzer had an excellent outing. Danks will need to have a great outing while Scherzer gets shelled, which I doubt will happen.
    Projected winner: No (Matthew)
  11. Will Marlon Byrd finish at least 5 OFs higher on the Player Rater than Will Venable?
    Currently, Byrd (5.33) is 41st and Venable (4.13) is 55th among OFs. Byrd has fallen off from his early season numbers but Venable’s average is what killed him in this bet.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)
  12. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Max Scherzer or Chad Billingsley?
    Currently, Scherzer (5.10) is 37th and Billingsley (3.74) is 58th among SPs. Billingsley’s outing last night killed any shot he had at surpassing Scherzer.
    Projected winner: Scherzer (Matthew)
  13. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva?
    Currently, Hernandez (2.84) is 70th and Silva (1.85) is 87th among SPs. Silva is pretty much done for the year at this point.
    Projected winner: Hernandez (Matthew)
  14. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Mike Leake or Johnny Cueto?
    Currently, Cueto (5.03) has a commanding lead over Leake (0.08) and has this wrapped up.
    Projected winner: Cueto (Nate)
  15. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Chris B. Young or Vernon Wells?
    Currently, Wells (6.10) is 35th and Young (8.54) is 13th among OFs. Wells actually improved since last month but he’s way too far behind to catch Young.
    Projected winner: Young (Matthew)
  16. Who wins more categories (HR,RBI,BA) from 5-18-10 on: Jack Cust or David Ortiz?
    Player Hits/ABs BA HRs RBIs
    Jack Cust 80/325 .246 12 46
    David Ortiz 101/381 .265 23 74

    Ortiz won this bet with his huge May #s.
    Projected winner: Ortiz (Nate)

  17. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Chris B. Young or Corey Hart?
    Currently, Young (8.54) is 13th and Hart (7.18) is 25th among OFs. Young’s ability to steal bases will win him this bet. Both guys are fairly equal in the BA, runs and RBIs department.
    Projected winner: Young (Matthew)
  18. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Nick Markakis or Johnny Damon?
    Currently, Markakis (4.47) is 50th and Damon (3.25) is 66th among OFs. This is looking pretty solid in favor of Markakis as he keeps collecting hits while Damon appears to be struggling and sitting more often.
    Projected winner: Markakis (Matthew)
  19. Will Brennan Boesch be a top 50 OF?
    Currently at 75th (2.82) on the Player Rater. He should’ve never have gone on the podcast.
    Projected winner: Out of the top 50 (Nate)
  20. Will C.J. Wilson have an ERA of 4.00 in the 2nd half?
    In 12 post All-Star break starts, Wilson has an ERA of 3.00. He’s been rocked recently but he should be okay the rest of the season.
    Projected winner: Under 4.00 (Matthew)
  21. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Jeremy Guthrie or John Lackey?
    Player IP WHIP ERA K W
    Guthrie 83.2 1.04 2.80 51 7
    Lackey 81.1 1.31 4.43 69 3

    Guthrie has won ERA, Wins and WHIP. This bet should be conceded by Matthew.
    Projected winner: Guthrie (Nate)

Counting up all the projections Nate is still winning the board 17-15. If Matthew wants to win this board he’ll need the following to happen:

  • Kelly Johnson gets amnesia, thinks it April 2010 again and slugs out 2 more HRs.
  • Pray that Daisuke Matsuzaka throws a perfect game.
  • Jair Jurrjens makes one final start where he gives up 8 runs in an innning of work.
  • Dan Haren remembers he’s supposed to suck in the 2nd half.
  • Jaime Garcia throws a no-hitter.
  • iggyfenton

    Berry is a baby and everyone should be rooting for Nate to win.