2010 Baseball Board: September Update #1

Stats compiled through 9/15/10 games.

With the season running down, it’s time to separate the bets out to what’ll come down to the wire and what’s essentially locked up.

All but locked up:

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Asdrubal Cabrera or Orlando Cabrera?
    Currently, Asdrubal (-0.74) is 42nd and Orlando (2.25) is 21st among SS. That’s a pretty big gap to make up in just a few weeks. Asdrubal would need a huge power surge to overtake Orlando but when he only 3 HRs on the season, this is highly unlikely.
    Projected winner: Orlando (Nate)
  2. Will Manny Ramirez hit over/under 27.5 homeruns?
    He currently has 8 homeruns on the season and is on pace for 10 homeruns. He’s not going to pull a Tulowitzki and hit 20 homeruns the rest of the month.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  3. Will Alberto Callaspo have 600 Plate Appearances?
    He currently has around 555 PAs and is on pace for over 620 PAs. He’s out there playing every day and picking up 3-4 PAs but he’s a minor injury away from making this bet really interesting.
    Projected winner: Over 600 PAs (Nate)
  4. Will Chone Figgins hit over/under his career BA (.291)?
    He’s currently hitting .258 and has surged in September but I think he’s dug too big a hole to get up to .291.
    Projected winner: Under .291 (Matthew)
  5. Who has a higher batting average (min 250 ABs), Alcides Escobar or Rafael Furcal?
    Currently, Escobar is hitting .242 while Furcal is hitting .303 and both players have at least 250 ABs. There’s not enough time left in the season for this to even get close.
    Projected winner: Furcal (Nate)
  6. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Kevin Slowey or Francisco Liriano?
    Currently, Liriano (6.59) is leading Slowey (2.81) on the Player Rater and holds a huge advantage in Ks and ERA.  It would take an implosion on Liriano’s behalf for this to go in Slowey’s favor.
    Projected winner: Liriano (Matthew)
  7. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Adam Jones or Nick Markakis?
    Currently, Jones (4.93) is leading Markakis (4.53) with both players hitting pretty well recently. Markakis is trailing due to his lack of power. I don’t see him having a power surge to make up the difference.
    Projected winner: Jones (Matthew)
  8. Will Ichiro steal over/under 39.5 bases?
    He currently has 39 steals and is on pace for 43 steals. A couple weeks to pick up one steal? Ichiro will have no issue topping 40 SBs this year.
    Projected winner: Over 39.5 SBs (Nate)
  9. Who will have more saves on the Padres: Luke Gregerson or Mike Adams?
    Gregerson has vultured 2 saves so far to take the lead in this bet. At this point in the season, and with the Padres still in the playoff race, it’s not looking like anyone else besides Heath Bell will be picking up saves.
    Projected winner: Gregerson (Nate)
  10. Will Marlon Byrd finish at least 5 OFs higher on the Player Rater than Will Venable?
    Currently, Byrd (5.68) is 39th and Venable (3.28) is 66th among OFs. Byrd has fallen off from his early season numbers but Venable’s average is what killed him in this bet.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)
  11. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva?
    Currently, Hernandez (3.08) is 65th and Silva (1.96) is 86th among SPs. Silva is pretty much done for the year at this point.
    Projected winner: Hernandez (Matthew)
  12. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Mike Leake or Johnny Cueto?
    Currently, Cueto (5.02) has a commanding lead over Leake (0.16) and has this wrapped up.
    Projected winner: Cueto (Nate)
  13. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Chris B. Young or Vernon Wells?
    Currently, Wells (6.17) is 33rd and Young (8.86) is 11th among OFs. Wells actually improved since last month but he’s way too far behind to catch Young.
    Projected winner: Young (Matthew)
  14. Who wins more categories (HR,RBI,BA) from 5-18-10 on: Jack Cust or David Ortiz?
    Player Hits/ABs BA HRs RBIs
    Jack Cust 76/278 .273 11 45
    David Ortiz 99/367 .270 23 73

    Ortiz won this bet with his huge May #s.
    Projected winner: Ortiz (Nate)

  15. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Chris B. Young or Corey Hart?
    Currently, Young (8.86) is 11th and Hart (7.46) is 18th among OFs. Young’s ability to steal bases will win him this bet. Both guys are fairly equal in the BA, runs and RBIs department.
    Projected winner: Young (Matthew)
  16. Will Kelly Johnson hit 25 homeruns?
    Currently at 21 HRs and on pace for 23 HRs. He’s hit two homeruns in September and will need to finish hot, which isn’t look too likely.
    Projected winner: Under 25 HRs (Nate)
  17. Will Brennan Boesch be a top 50 OF?
    Currently at 75h (2.60) on the Player Rater. He should’ve never have gone on the podcast.
    Projected winner: Out of the top 50 (Nate)
  18. Will C.J. Wilson have an ERA of 4.00 in the 2nd half?
    In 11 post All-Star break starts, Wilson has an ERA of 3.09. He’s been rocked recently but he should be okay the rest of the season.
    Projected winner: Under 4.00 (Matthew)

Down to the wire:

  1. Will Bobby Jenks save 30 games?
    He currently has 27 saves and is on pace for 30 saves. He’s been missing time with a forearm injury and he’s running out of opportunities to pick up saves.  The White Sox have 17 games left in their season and with not a whole lot to play for. I could really go either way at this point but I’ll stick with the projections.
    Projected winner: over 30 saves (Nate)
  2. Will David Wright hit 25.5 homeruns this season?
    He currently has 23 homeruns and is on pace for 26 homeruns. He got back on pace after hitting 6 HRs between August 17th and Sept 3rd but he hasn’t had a HR since then (or even a extra base hit). Wright will finish with 25 HRs.
    Projected winner: Under (Matthew)
  3. Will John Danks finish 10 starting pitchers higher on the Player Rater than Max Scherzer?
    Currently Danks (5.57) is 28th and Scherzer (4.42) is 48th among SPs. This will get a little closer by the end of the season but I don’t think Scherzer can make up enough ground to pull within 10 spots.  I’ll give this another week before moving it in the “All but locked up” section.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)
  4. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Max Scherzer or Chad Billingsley?
    Currently, Scherzer (4.42) is 48th and Billingsley (4.12) is 56th among SPs. Scherzer has pitched ever so slightly better than Billingsley recently and I like Scherzer to keep his current pace.  It’s still too close to call at this point since it would take one disastrous start by Scherzer to drop him below the Buzzsaw.
    Projected winner: Scherzer (Matthew)
  5. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Nick Markakis or Johnny Damon?
    Currently, Markakis (4.53) is 49th and Damon (3.45) is 63rd among OFs. Aside from their BA, all of their numbers are pretty similar. Markakis should be able to hold off Damon but a week could change all of that.
    Projected winner: Markakis (Matthew)
  6. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Daisuke Matsuzaka or Jair Jurrjens?
    Player IP BB H WHIP ERA K W
    Jurrjens 87.1 29 92 1.39 4.33 67 6
    Matsuzaka 74.1 32 74 1.43 5.09 66 4

    Jurrjens currently leads 4-1. Jair has wins and IP locked up but the other categories are too close to call. As long as Jurrjens doesn’t implode he has this won.
    Projected winner: Jurrjens (Nate)

  7. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Jeremy Guthrie or John Lackey?
    Player IP WHIP ERA K W
    Guthrie 78.2 0.99 2.29 46 7
    Lackey 77.0 1.25 3.97 66 3

    Guthrie has won ERA, Wins and WHIP which is good enough to win the bet but he’s a couple bad starts away from getting his WHIP killed.  I’ll hold off on calling this for another week.
    Projected winner: Guthrie (Nate)

  8. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Jaime Garcia or Dan Haren?
    Player IP BB H WHIP ER K W
    Garcia 47.1 18 48 1.39 3.61 38 4
    Haren 54.1 16 53 1.27 3.16 41 3

    Haren has pitched great recently and has taken over the lead in this bet 4-1. With Garcia’s # of innings in question, Haren has locked up IP and K. Wins could very well be a push and WHIP & ERA are too close to call.  I like Haren to win this bet since it’s looking like Garcia’s hit his wall.
    Projected winner: Haren (Nate)

  9. Will Brian Duensing collect over/under 3.5 wins from 8-18-10 on?
    Duensing has 3 wins and has pitched great since he was put in the rotation. His final matchups could be CLE, @DET and TOR. I like him to win the CLE game and his 4th win.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)

Counting up all the projections Nate is still winning the board 18-14. Matthew has definitely made up ground thanks to his recent board wagers. This is still Nate’s board to lose and if Matthew wants any hope of winning the board he’ll need Bobby Jenks to not pick up any more saves, and to have Haren/Guthrie/Jurrjens get lit up in their final starts.