2010 Baseball Board: August Update

Stats compiled through 8/24/10 games.

The board goes in to the August update being tied up at 2.  Has Matthew made up ground in the month of August or has Nate pulled away and locked up the board?  Let’s take a look at the current open bets.

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Asdrubal Cabrera or Orlando Cabrera?
    Currently, Asdrubal (-0.77) is 38th and Orlando (1.59) is 22nd among SS. Asdrubal has been solid in August while Orlando has missed most of it with an injury.  I still think that Asdrubal has missed too much time to catch up but I wouldn’t be surprised if this one gets a lot closer by the end of the season.
    Projected winner: Orlando (Nate)
  2. Will Manny Ramirez hit over/under 27.5 homeruns?
    He currently has 8 homeruns on the season and is on pace for 13 homeruns. Unless Manny goes nuts on a new team, he’s not reaching 27.5 homeruns.  I’d be surprised if he even reached 20 homeruns.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  3. Will Bobby Jenks save 30 games?
    He currently has 24 saves and is on pace for 31 saves. He should be able to pick up 6 more saves since a couple of his setup guys are out with injuries so there’ll be less of a chance that someone will vulture saves from him.
    Projected winner: over 30 saves (Nate)
  4. Will Alberto Callaspo have 600 Plate Appearances?
    He currently has around 480 PAs and is on pace for over 620 PAs. He’s out there playing every day and picking up 3-4 PAs but he’s a minor injury away from making this bet really interesting.
    Projected winner: Over 600 PAs (Nate)
  5. Will Chone Figgins hit over/under his career BA (.291)?
    He’s currently hitting .251. He’s currently hitting .316 in August and has raised his BA 30 points since July. He’ll have to have a ridiculous September to get his average up over .291
    Projected winner: Under .291 (Matthew)
  6. Who has a higher batting average (min 250 ABs), Alcides Escobar or Rafael Furcal?
    Currently, Escobar is hitting .250 while Furcal is hitting .316 and both players have at least 250 ABs. Furcal has been dealing with back issues and there’s a shot he may miss the rest of the season. I think if he comes back we may see the Furcal of 2009 which will drop his average but not to the point where Escobar will over take him.
    Projected winner: Furcal (Nate)
  7. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Kevin Slowey or Francisco Liriano?
    Currently, Liriano (5.49) is 30th and Slowey (2.93) is 65th among OFs. Liriano has been great this year and has essentially locked up this bet with Slowey going on the DL.
    Projected winner: Liriano (Matthew)
  8. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Adam Jones or Nick Markakis?
    Currently, Markakis (3.40) is 60th and Jones (4.31) is 47th among OFs. Markakis has been really disappointing this year for fantasy owners and he doesn’t look like he’ll turn it around this year. Jones should be able to keep his lead with better power numbers.
    Projected winner: Jones (Matthew)
  9. Will Ichiro steal over/under 39.5 bases?
    He currently has 31 steals and is on pace for 40 steals. He’s had a lull in steals but he’s just a few multi-steal games away from reaching 40. This will be really close but I think he’ll steal 41 bases.
    Projected winner: Over 39.5 SBs (Nate)
  10. Will David Wright hit 25.5 homeruns this season?
    He currently has 19 homeruns and is on pace for 25 homeruns. He’s only hit 5 homeruns since the All-Star break. I don’t think he’s got a 7 homerun month in him.  He’ll finish right around 23-24 homeruns.
    Projected winner: Under (Matthew)
  11. Who will have more saves on the Padres: Luke Gregerson or Mike Adams?
    Gregerson has vultured 1 save so far to take the lead in this bet. Adams is back from injury and regained his 8th inning role. He’s got the best shot to vulture any saves but the likelyhood of any more vultured saves is low.
    Projected winner: Gregerson (Nate)
  12. Will John Danks finish 10 starting pitchers higher on the Player Rater than Max Scherzer?
    Currently Danks (6.45) is 20th and Scherzer (3.78) is 56th among SPs. Scherzer has been spectacular since his recall and Danks is about as solid as you can get, so this all boils down to Scherzer’s early season troubles.  Scherzer will keep climbing up the Player Rater but there’s too much ground to make up to get in to the top 30.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)
  13. Will Marlon Byrd finish at least 5 OFs higher on the Player Rater than Will Venable?
    Currently, Byrd (5.56) is 37th and Venable (4.09) is 52nd among OFs. Byrd has come back to earth a bit and hasn’t done a whole lot recently. Venable’s average is what’s killing him in this bet.  If he can keep hitting close to .300, like he has for August, then he’ll keep creeping closer to Byrd.  It’ll be close but I still like Byrd to squeak out the win.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)
  14. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Max Scherzer or Chad Billingsley?
    Currently, Scherzer (3.78) is 56th and Billingsley (3.71) is 57th among SPs. Over the last 30 days Scherzer has pitched slightly better than Billingsley. The Buzzsaw currently has a calf injury which shouldn’t affect him but it certainly won’t help him. It’s that little bit of doubt that is causing me to like Scherzer more at this point.
    Projected winner:Scherzer (Matthew)
  15. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva?
    Currently, Hernandez (3.26) is 62nd and Silva (2.85) is 68th among SPs. Silva should be coming back from his heart scare in two weeks or so after he makes a couple of rehab starts. It’s hard to say how well he’ll pitch after the time off but this is Livan’s bet to lose.  If you throw out the last start, Livan has been pitching pretty well recently.
    Projected winner: Hernandez (Matthew)
  16. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Mike Leake or Johnny Cueto?
    Currently, Leake (0.57) is 112th and Cueto (3.91) is 52nd among SPs. Leake has hit the wall and has plummeted in the Player Rater. Cueto’s got this one locked up.
    Projected winner: Cueto (Nate)
  17. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Chris B. Young or Vernon Wells?
    Currently, Wells (5.27) is 40th and Young (8.88) is 6th among OFs. Wells is hitting just .228 with 20 RBI over his last 60 games and is resembling the player we all knew he was. Young is performing a little better and it’s his SB total that will ultimately win the bet for him.
    Projected winner: Young (Matthew)
  18. Who wins more categories (HR,RBI,BA) from 5-18-10 on: Jack Cust or David Ortiz?
    Player Hits/ABs BA HRs RBIs
    Jack Cust 58/219 .265 10 34
    David Ortiz 82/297 .276 20 61

    Ortiz is leading the way in all categories so far in thanks to a great May. Cust showed some signs of life in July but has fallen off in August. This one is locked up for Ortiz.
    Projected winner: Ortiz (Nate)

  19. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Chris B. Young or Corey Hart?
    Currently, Young (8.88) is 6th and Hart (7.11) is 19th among OFs. Young’s ability to steal bases will win him this bet. Both guys are fairly equal in the BA, runs and RBIs department.
    Projected winner: Young (Matthew)
  20. Will Troy Tulowitzki hit 20 HRs (in at least 525 ABs)?
    Tulo’s broken wrist will cause this to be a push as he won’t reach 525 ABs.
    Projected winner: Push
  21. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Nick Markakis or Johnny Damon?
    Currently, Markakis (3.40) is 60th and Damon (3.15) is 68th among OFs. Yet another bet that’ll be close, I still like Markakis to display more power than Damon and that should be enough to keep him ahead of Damon.
    Projected winner: Markakis (Matthew)
  22. Will Kelly Johnson hit 25 homeruns?
    Currently at 19 HRs and on pace for 25 HRs. He’s keeping up the pace and but the most HRs he’s had outside of April’s 9 is 4 HRs in July. He’ll need to hit another in August and have a “big” September to reach 25 HRs. I see him finishing with 22 HRs.
    Projected winner: Under 25 HRs (Nate)
  23. Will Brennan Boesch be a top 50 OF?
    Currently at 66th (3.18) on the Player Rater. He should’ve never have gone on the podcast.  The long slump that he was in killed any hope of him being in the top 50.
    Projected winner: Out of the top 50 (Nate)
  24. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Daisuke Matsuzaka or Jair Jurrjens?
    Player IP BB H WHIP ERA K W
    Jurrjens 62.2 17 57 1.18 3.16 42 4
    Matsuzaka 58.0 23 52 1.29 3.88 53 3

    Jurrjens currently leads 4-1. Jair should win WHIP and ERA and Dice-K should win K. I like Jurrjens to go further in his games so he’s got the slight edge in that category, which should be enough to win the bet. UPDATE: Jurrjens is currently getting rocked and may have given up his ERA lead.
    Projected winner: Jurrjens (Nate)

  25. Will C.J. Wilson have an ERA of 4.00 in the 2nd half?
    In 7 post All-Star break starts, Wilson has an ERA of 2.20. Wilson has pitched great since June and should easily have a sub-4.00 ERA in the 2nd half.
    Projected winner: Under 4.00 (Matthew)
  26. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Jeremy Guthrie or John Lackey?
    Player IP WHIP ERA K W
    Guthrie 56.1 1.07 2.88 30 4
    Lackey 56.2 1.27 3.97 46 3

    Guthrie is surprisingly leading the W category and has been great in the 2nd half. Guthrie has WHIP and ERA won and Lackey has Ks won. I like Guthrie’s chances to pick up more wins and IPs with the way he’s pitched in the 2nd half.
    Projected winner: Guthrie (Nate)

  27. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Jaime Garcia or Dan Haren?
    Player IP BB H WHIP ER K W
    Garcia 25.1 8 20 1.11 2.84 17 2
    Haren 27.1 3 35 1.39 5.27 13 1

    Garcia leads 4-1 and has a commanding lead in WHIP and ERA. I like Haren to win IP since with all rookie pitchers, you have to expect a close watch at their inning limit. I’m a bit surprised Haren is currently losing Ks but I expect him to rebound and win that category as well. So, it’ll come down to Ws and I like Garcia’s chances to win more games.  STL is looking to make the playoffs while LAA is thinking about next year.
    Projected winner: Garcia (Matthew)

  28. Will Brian Duensing collect over/under 3.5 wins from 8-18-10 on?
    Duensing has already picked up a win.  Here’s what his next starts are looking like: @TEX, DET, TEX, @CLE, OAK, CLE, @KC, TOR. He should be able to pick up 3 more wins with the CLE and KC games.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)

A lot of bets that looked like they were clearly in favor of one person have been turned around and could easily go either way. Counting up all the projections Nate is still winning the board 17-14-1, which is down from last month.  Matthew has definitely made up ground thanks to his recent board wagers.  The door is still open for Matthew with there being a handful of close bets that he could take away from Nate but this is clearly Nate’s board to lose.