2010 Baseball Board: July Update


Matthew picked up his first board win with Spain’s win over Germany in the FIFA World Cup, so the board now stands at 2-1 in Nate’s favor. Has the last month been good to Matthew that he’s got a fighting chance at winning the board or has Nate continued to prove that he is truly is one of the greatest fantasy analysts alive?

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Asdrubal Cabrera or Orlando Cabrera?
    Currently, Asdrubal (-2.08) is 49th and Orlando (1.94) is 17th among SS. Holy moly, Asdrubal is back! Orlando has dropped off a bit but Asdrubal may have missed enough time to really make up any serious ground.
    Projected winner: Orlando (Nate)
  2. Will Manny Ramirez hit over/under 27.5 homeruns?
    He currently has 8 homeruns on the season and is on pace for 17 homeruns. Manny’s on the DL as I predicted last month and will be back in the middle of August. This gives him just under two months to hit 20 homeruns. It’s not out of the question but it’s very unlikely to happen.
    Projected winner: Under (Nate)
  3. Will Bobby Jenks save 30 games?
    He currently has 20 saves and is on pace for 34 saves. He’s been knocked around recently and that of course has led to speculation that he could be out of the closer’s job in Chi-town. I think Ozzie Guillen’s latest comments may have been another ploy to fire up Jenks since it worked the first time around.
    Projected winner: over 30 saves (Nate)
  4. Will Alberto Callaspo have 600 Plate Appearances?
    He currently has around 370 PAs and is on pace for over 650 PAs. Callaspo hasn’t performed as he did earlier in the season but his spot in KC is secure. The only thing that could cause him to not reach 600 PAs is if he’s traded and used as a utility player.
    Projected winner: Over 600 PAs (Nate)
  5. Will Chone Figgins hit over/under his career BA (.291)?
    He’s currently hitting .230. He went from a decent June (.271) and regressed in July (.221). He’s not showing any signs of turning it around. He’ll have another hit streak but will end up hitting around .250.
    Projected winner: Under .291 (Matthew)
  6. Who has a higher batting average (min 250 ABs), Alcides Escobar or Rafael Furcal?
    Currently, Escobar is hitting .242 while Furcal is hitting .337 and both players have at least 250 ABs. Furcal has been killing the ball in June & July while Escobar is looking like he’s still figuring out major league pitching.
    Projected winner: Furcal (Nate)
  7. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Adam Jones or Nick Markakis?
    Currently, Markakis (3.13) is 64th and Jones (4.39) is 52nd among OFs. Really the only thing that is separating these guys is the homerun total. They’re both fairly even in all the other categories. Markakis needs to have a power surge in August to catch up to Jones.
    Projected winner: Jones (Matthew)
  8. Will Ichiro steal over/under 39.5 bases?
    He currently has 22 steals and is on pace for 38 steals. The pace has slowed, as he’s only had one steal in July so far. Seattle’s offensive woes are starting to take a toll on Ichiro’s steal opportunites. I still think he’ll get back on pace and end up with more than 40 steals.
    Projected winner: Over 39.5 SBs (Nate)
  9. Will David Wright hit 25.5 homeruns this season?
    He currently has 15 homeruns and is on pace for 26 homeruns. He’s only got 1 homerun in July so far and it’s made this bet a coin flip. He’s still hitting the ball and his recently lack of HRs may be attributed to the team’s struggles.
    Projected winner: Over 25.5 HRs (Nate)
  10. Who will have more saves on the Padres: Luke Gregerson or Mike Adams?
    Gregerson has vultured 1 save so far to take the lead in this bet. With the Padres contending, I don’t think Heath Bell will be traded so any more saves will be vultured. Adams is currently injured so it opens the door some more for Gregerson to vulture another save or even take over the closer role in case Bell does get traded.
    Projected winner: Gregerson (Nate)
  11. Will John Danks finish 10 starting pitchers higher on the Player Rater than Max Scherzer?
    Currently Danks (6.26) is 19th and Scherzer (2.36) is 77th among SPs. Scherzer has actually pitched better than Danks over the last 30 days but his early season struggles will keep him at least 10 spots back.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)
  12. Will Marlon Byrd finish at least 5 OFs higher on the Player Rater than Will Venable?
    Currently, Byrd (5.94) is 30th and Venable (2.95) is 67th among OFs. Byrd is looking like he’ll be a top 30 OF this year while Venable is still struggling to hit consistently. Venable will keep it respectable with his ability to steal bases but ultimately it’ll be his batting average that’ll keep him behind.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)
  13. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Max Scherzer or Chad Billingsley?
    Currently, Scherzer (2.36) is 77th and Billingsley (2.49) is 74th among SPs. Scherzer is looking really good right now while the Buzzsaw has been very inconsistent. Scherzer has made up for his early season struggles and has caught up to Billingsley. Scherzer will be the better pitcher the rest of the season and will end up finishing higher on the Player Rater.
    Projected winner:Scherzer (Matthew)
  14. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva?
    Currently, Hernandez (3.39) is 59th and Silva (3.86) is 46th among SPs. Both guys have been knocked around a bit recently and if Silva’s injury keeps bugging him he may have just throwing this in favor of Livan. I expect Silva to bounce back and pitch consistently again. I wouldn’t be surprised if this bet flops next month.
    Projected winner: Silva (Nate)
  15. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Mike Leake or Johnny Cueto?
    Currently, Leake (2.74) is 69th and Cueto (4.37) is 41st among SPs. I think Leake’s innings will start to get limited fairly soon, but then again Dusty Baker is the manager so this may not happen. Anyway, an innings limit will keep Leake from gaining ground in the counting categories and that should be enough cushion room for Cueto to win.
    Projected winner: Cueto (Nate)
  16. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Chris B. Young or Vernon Wells?
    Currently, Wells (5.59) is 35th and Young (8.88) is 6th among OFs. Their stats are fairly similar right now with Young having a sizable lead in the SB department. Wells’ power has disappeared, along with his RBI total. Young is looking like a more consistent producer and should continue to dominate Wells.
    Projected winner: Young (Matthew)
  17. Who wins more categories (HR,RBI,BA) from 5-18-10 on: Jack Cust or David Ortiz?
    Player Hits/ABs BA HRs RBIs
    Jack Cust 40/142 .282 6 26
    David Ortiz 45/174 .259 11 41

    Ortiz is leading the way in all categories so far in thanks to a great May. Cust has come back to life recently and will need to go on an absolute tear to catch up to Big Papi.
    Projected winner: Ortiz (Nate)

  18. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Chris B. Young or Corey Hart?
    Currently, Young (8.88) is 6th and Hart (8.14) is 9th among OFs. Young’s ability to steal bases will win him this bet. Both guys are fairly equal in the BA, runs and RBIs department.
    Projected winner: Young (Matthew)
  19. Will Troy Tulowitzki hit 20 HRs (in at least 525 ABs)?
    Tulo’s broken wrist will cause this to be a push as he won’t reach 525 ABs.
    Projected winner: Push
  20. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Nick Markakis or Johnny Damon?
    Currently, Markakis (3.13) is 64th and Damon (3.42) is 60th among OFs. I like Markakis to start hitting with a bit more power and give him the edge in the RBI and HR department. I don’t think Damon is going to put up numbers anywhere close to what he did last year.
    Projected winner: Markakis (Matthew)
  21. Will Kelly Johnson hit 25 homeruns?
    Currently at 15 HRs and on pace for 26 HRs. With 3 HRs in June and July so far, Johnson has fallen well off of his blistering pace at the start of the season. He’ll need to average about 4-5 HRs the next couple of months to have a shot at 25 and I just don’t see that happening.
    Projected winner: Under 25 HRs (Nate)
  22. Will Brennan Boesch be a top 50 OF?
    Currently at 44th (5.01) on the Player Rater. He’s played great so far this season but has slumped recently. The slump was bound to happen and he’ll regress a little over the last couple of months. I’m sold on his ability but I just don’t think he can sustain it for the entire season.
    Projected winner: Out of the top 50 (Nate)
  23. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Daisuke Matsuzaka or Jair Jurrjens?
    Player IP BB H WHIP ER K W
    Jurrjens 48.2 21 41 1.27 4.25 35 3
    Matsuzaka 77.2 37 66 1.33 4.29 65 7

    Matsuzaka currently leads 4-1, with K’s, IP and W strongly in his favor. Jurrjens should win WHIP and ERA. It’s a good thing Atlanta is good this year because if they weren’t then Jurrjens wouldn’t have a shot at catching up in wins. It’ll take a Matsuzaka injury for Jurrjens to catch up in any other category.
    Projected winner: Matsuzaka (Matthew)

  24. Will C.J. Wilson have an ERA of 4.00 in the 2nd half?
    In 1 post All-Star break start, Wilson has an ERA of 1.35. Wilson’s only had one bad month (May, 4.62 ERA) so far but he’s already pitching more innings than he ever has in a major league season. I’m worried he’ll run out of gas and get torched but he’s hasn’t shown that yet.
    Projected winner: Under 4.00 (Matthew)
  25. Who wins more 5×5 categories (ERA, K, W, WHIP, IP): Jeremy Guthrie or John Lackey?
    Player IP BB H WHIP ER K W
    Guthrie 6.2 1 7 1.20 1.35 6 0
    Lackey 7.0 2 7 1.29 2.57 3 0

    Lackey should win the K and W categories and I believe Guthrie should win the WHIP and ERA categories. So it’ll come down to IP, which will be neck and neck. I like Guthrie to pitch longer outing since he hasn’t been knocked around like Lackey so far this season.
    Projected winner: Guthrie (Nate)

Matthew’s faired a little better this month with the recent board bets but he’ll need more Spain/Germany type bets placed on the board if he wants to at least make this competitive.
Nate is projected to destroy Matthew 18-9-1.
At least TMR has the Angels to cheer on this summer.