2010 Baseball Board: May Update


With 6 weeks almost complete in the MLB season, it’s time to start taking a look at the bets Matthew and Nate have put on the board. Every couple of weeks I’ll run down the board bets so we can see who has a good shot at winning the board. So, without further ado I’ll put on my swami hat and make some ‘way too early’ predictions.

All stats and ratings are current as of May 13th.

  1. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Asdrubal Cabrera or Orlando Cabrera?
    Currently, Asdrubal (0.94) is 19th and Orlando (3.08) is 8th among SS. This should be a fairly close bet once Asdrubal starts stealing bases but the Indians offense is looking pretty bad and it’ll cut in to his RBI totals.  This’ll allow Orlando to squeak out the win.
    Projected winner: Orlando (Nate)
  2. Will Manny Ramirez hit over/under 27.5 homeruns?
    He currently only has 2 homeruns on the season and is on pace for 16 homeruns.  He’s still hitting for a high average (.393) so I think the power will come around.  It’s just a matter of him being able to stay healthy.  I’m optimistic and think he’ll finish around 30 homeruns but I wouldn’t put any money on that.
    Projected winner: Over (Matthew)
  3. Will Bobby Jenks save 30 games?
    He currently has 6 saves and is on pace for 29 saves.  He also has a WHIP over 2.00 and an ERA over 6.00.  Needless to say, he hasn’t looked like someone you’d have confidence in to close games.  There’s already been talk of Matt Thornton stepping in and this doesn’t bode well for Jenks’ save totals.
    Projected winner: under 30 saves (Matthew)
  4. Will Alberto Callaspo have 600 Plate Appearances?
    He currently has 147 PAs and is on pace for over 600 PAs. Callaspo has been playing great and with Alex Gordon in the minors (and with some trade rumors swirling), it looks like he’ll be playing every day.
    Projected winner: Over 600 PAs (Nate)
  5. Will Chone Figgins hit over/under his career BA (.291)?
    He’s currently hitting .185 and it’s starting to look like this is going to be one of his off seasons.  So far this season, he’s only got 4 multi-hit games. He’ll bring the average up to something respectable but he’ll have to go on a major tear if he wants to hit anywhere close to .300
    Projected winner: Under .291 (Matthew)
  6. Who has a higher batting average (min 250 ABs), Alcides Escobar or Rafael Furcal?
    Currently, Escobar is hitting .225 while Furcal is hitting .309.  As long as Furcal can stay healthy, he should be able to beat Escobar. Escobar may be going through some growing pains and that’ll limit his production.
    Projected winner: Furcal (Nate)
  7. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Adam Jones or Nick Markakis?
    Currently, Markakis (2.61) is 54th and Jones (-0.20) is 88th among OFs. Jones obviously won’t be this bad but I think Markakis will have the advantage in Batting Average while all other categories could end up being fairly similar.
    Projected winner: Markakis (Nate)
  8. Will Ichiro steal over/under 39.5 bases?
    He currently has 10 steals and is on pace for 48 steals.  I like Ichiro to keep running since the Mariners’ offense doesn’t have any pop and he’ll need to get in to scoring position to help them manufacture runs.
    Projected winner: Over 39.5 SBs (Nate)
  9. Will David Wright hit 25.5 homeruns this season?
    He currently has 7 homeruns and is on pace for 32 homeruns.  He seems to be over whatever was bugging him last year but he still only has 1 homerun in NY.  I still like him to approach 30 homeruns.
    Projected winner: Over 25.5 HRs (Nate)
  10. Who will have more saves on the Padres: Luke Gregerson or Mike Adams?
    Neither currently have any saves but Mike Adams is pitching the 8th inning so he’s got a better chance to vulture saves and looks to be first in line for the closing gig if Heath Bell gets traded.
    Projected winner: Adams (Matthew)
  11. Will John Danks finish 10 starting pitchers higher on the Player Rater than Max Scherzer?
    Currently Danks (5.08) is 19th and Scherzer (-2.85) is 196th among SPs. Scherzer isn’t this bad and he should recover to a respectable ranking and Danks has looked great this year. When the season is over, I think Danks will still be in the 20’s while Scherzer is in the 50’s.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)
  12. Will Marlon Byrd finish at least 5 OFs higher on the Player Rater than Will Venable?
    Currently, Byrd (8.21) is 8th and Venable (4.22) is 39th among OFs. Byrd will come back to Earth a little bit but he’s shown he can produce solid numbers for a season, while we’re still learning what Venable can do over a full seaon.  Venable’s batting average worries me so I think he’ll go through some rough stretches and that’ll hurt his overall value.
    Projected winner: Yes (Nate)
  13. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Max Scherzer or Chad Billingsley?
    Currently, Scherzer (-2.85) is 196th and Billingsley (0.79) is 89th among SPs. As I said before, Scherzer will recover but the Buzzsaw really worries me.  It just feels like he’s still figuring things out and could always get lit up on any given start.
    Projected winner: Scherzer (Matthew)
  14. Who gets called up to the majors first: Aroldis Chapman or Stephen Strasburg?
    Strasburg hasn’t had much of an issue pitching in the minors, while Chapman has had some control issues recently.  If Cueto and Bailey can repeat their last performances then the Reds may have a problem finding a rotation spot for Chapman. On the other side, the Nationals are winning and have some incentive to call up Strasburg soon. In short, there’s less hurdles for Strasburg to get to the majors.
    Projected winner: Strasburg (Nate)
  15. Who wins American Idol: Crystal Bowersox/Casey James/Siobhan Magnus or Lee Dewyze?
    I haven’t a clue and had to look up to see who was still in the competition, which Siobhan got voted out at some point. I’m going with Dewyze since it reminds me of this catch.
    Projected winner: Dewyze (Nate)
  16. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva?
    Currently, Hernandez (5.49) is 14th and Silva (3.48) is 44th among SPs. Both guys are just a tad fluky and I think the real Livan will show up at some point go back to being the guy who goes out there to eat innings. Silva has been a tad more reliable in the recent years so I like him to finish higher.
    Projected winner: Silva (Nate)
  17. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Mike Leake or Johnny Cueto?
    Currently, Leake (3.16) is 50th and Cueto (2.14) is 63rd among SPs. Cueto seems to be getting his act together and while Leake has been fantastic so far, I think the league will catch up to the rookie.  The fact that Leake went from is college to the majors is impressive but it’s also scary.
    Projected winner: Cueto (Nate)
  18. Who finishes higher on the Player Rater: Chris B. Young or Vernon Wells?
    Currently, Wells (8.63) is 6th and Young (6.38) is 18th among OFs. I don’t trust Wells to keep up his current pace, and frankly I don’t think Young will either but I think Wells can fall off more than Young can.  Young will still put up the counting stats but I’m not so certain Wells will.  I’m going with upside here.
    Projected winner: Young (Matthew)

Assuming I’m psychic, Nate will walk away with the board and leave Matthew (and his little girly dog) in the dust. Nate is currently projected to win the board 12-6.